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Current Win Probability
Sevilla 10%
Draw 17.1%
Manchester City 72.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
14.3%
20.7%
65%
Our Initial ML Estimation
14.1%
20.4%
66.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sevilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester City's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sevilla than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
8.2%
4.3%
87.5%
Sevilla - Manchester City Predictions
Users Predictions:
Manchester City will win
(161 of 184 users predict this - 87.5%). Confidence interval (95%): 82.72% – 92.28%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Preview
Sevilla has currently - 0, has a very small chance of 1st (5%), has a chance of 2nd (24%), has a chance of 3rd (48%), has a chance of round of 16 (30%), has a small chance of qtrs (9%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Man City has currently - 0, has a good chance of 1st (76%), has a chance of 2nd (19%), has a very small chance of 3rd (4%), has a good chance of round of 16 (95%), has a good chance of qtrs (71%), has a chance of semis (49%), has a chance of final (31%), has a chance of win league (18%).
This event has big quality79, importance46, match rating62. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Sevilla is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Man City is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Sevilla could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Man City is absolute favorite.
There will not play in Sevilla: Corona J.
(Ankle Injury)
Marcao
(Muscle Injury)
Torres O.
(Inactive)
There will not play in Man City: Laporte A.
(Knee Injury)
Mendy B.
(Suspended)
Stones J.
(Injury)
Walker K.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Man City: Phillips K.
(Shoulder Injury)
Last 2 head-to-head matches Sevilla won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.
Including matches at home between the teams Sevilla won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.
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