Match Info

Championship - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Watford		Millwall

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.44	3.44	Watch
	2.11	3.53	3.39	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.2
	2.15	3.4	3.69	Watch
	2.16	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.91)	3.4 ↓ (3.6)	3.42 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
44.5%

Draw
27.8%

Millwall
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

25.5%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Watford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	28.1%	15.6%

Watford - Millwall Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 18 - 56.3%). Millwall will win (votes: 5 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 28.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watford: 39.1% – 73.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 2 - 50%). Millwall (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 2. Ngakia J. 6. Pollock M. 25. Abankwah J. 16. Bola M. 5. Kyprianou H. 10. Louza I. (C) 7. Ince T. 8. Chakvetadze G. 42. Maamma O. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.	15. Crocombe M. (G) 4. Crama T. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 14. Doughty A. 8. Mitchell B. 10. Neghli C. 11. Azeez F. 24. De Norre C. 7. Ballo T. 9. Ivanovic M.
Substitutes
34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 20. Doumbia M. 66. Irankunda N. 4. Keben K. 23. Mendy N. 22. Morris J. 18. Semedo V. 17. Sissoko M.	31. Bangura-Williams R. 19. Coburn J. 25. Cundle L. 22. Emakhu A. 12. Evans G. (G) 17. Langstaff M. 18. Leonard R. 2. McNamara D. 3. Sturge Z.
Coaches
Gracia J.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Kyprianou H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', De Norre C. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
49', Mitchell B. 🟨,
54', Chakvetadze G. 🟨,
66', Doughty A. 🟨,
66', Maamma O. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
66', Ngakia J. ↓, Keben K. ↑,
67', Ballo T. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
67', Ivanovic M. ↓, Coburn J. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Azeez F. ⚽,
71', Neghli C. 🟨,
80', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
80', Kyprianou H. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
80', Azeez F. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Coburn J. ⚽, Neghli C. (A),
88', Neghli C. ↓, Sturge Z. ↑,
89', Irankunda N. 🟨,
89', Crama T. 🟨,
90+2', Pollock M. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 1.

Watford is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Millwall has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Millwall may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Watford might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Watford: Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Millwall: Cundle L. (Shoulder Injury) De Norre C. (Calf Injury) Jensen L. (Muscle Injury) Kelly D. (Inactive) Luongo M. (Knee Injury) Smallbone W. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Watford won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:18. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Watford won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Millwall: 2% Watford: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	1	14
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49.4%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Millwall - the odds 3.87 are the expected chance of winning is 24.38%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Bristol City - Watford	5:1 ✺
English League Championship
01.01.26	Watford - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
29.12.25	Norwich City - Watford	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Leicester City - Watford	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWWW
- Millwall
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Burnley - Millwall	5:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Millwall - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
01.01.26	Southampton - Millwall	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Millwall - Bristol City	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Millwall - Ipswich Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.09.25	Millwall - Watford	1:0
08.03.25	Watford - Millwall	1:2
10.08.24	Millwall - Watford	2:3
02.03.24	Millwall - Watford	1:0
28.10.23	Watford - Millwall	2:2
26.12.22	Watford - Millwall	0:2
19.10.22	Millwall - Watford	3:0

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