Match Info

Serie B - Round 21

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Tremolada P. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Avellino

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.25	3.6	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.8
	2.02	3.2	3.65	Watch
	2.12	3.25	4.07
	2.04	3.26	3.74	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.4
	2.04	3.16	3.84	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.12)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	3.74 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
46%

Draw
29%

Avellino
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	38.5%	23.1%

Spezia - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Avellino will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 12% – 65%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Avellino (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spezia will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 3 - 75%). Avellino (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Radunovic B. (G) 37. Mateju A. 55. Hristov P. (C) 11. Beruatto P. 17. Sernicola L. 5. Valoti M. 29. Cassata F. 25. Bandinelli F. 70. Adamo E. 27. Soleri E. 9. Artistico G.	30. Daffara G. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 44. Simic L. 63. Fontanarosa A. 2. Missori F. 20. Palumbo M. 6. Palmiero L. (C) 24. Sounas D. 3. Sala M. 14. Biasci T. 7. Tutino G.
Substitutes
31. Aurelio G. 23. Candela A. 34. Comotto C. 20. Di Serio G. 6. Fellipe Jack 12. Mascardi D. (G) 8. Nagy A. 60. Romano A. 7. Verde D. 32. Vignali L. 99. Vlahovic V. 2. Wisniewski P.	21. Armellino M. 39. Besaggio M. 11. D'Andrea L. 56. Enrici P. 99. Favilli A. 4. Izzo A. 78. Milani A. 45. Pane P. (G) 9. Patierno C. 19. Reale F. 10. Russo R. 53. Sassi J. (G)
Coaches
Donadoni R.	Biancolino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Mateju A. 🟨,
8', Simic L. 🟨,
25', Bandinelli F. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
26', 1 - 0, Artistico G. ⚽,
32', Romano A. 🟨,
36', Fontanarosa A. 🟨,
37', Mateju A. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Adamo E. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
56', Palumbo M. 🟨,
64', Cassata F. 🟨,
68', Palmiero L. ↓, Favilli A. ↑,
75', Soleri E. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
75', Valoti M. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
80', Cancellotti T. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
80', Tutino G. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
86', Fontanarosa A. ↓, Enrici P. ↑,
86', Biasci T. ↓, Patierno C. ↑,
89', Sala M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 3.

Spezia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Avellino has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Spezia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Injury) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Avellino: Insigne R. (Calf Injury) Kumi J. (Injury) Rigione M. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11:7	4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.09%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.01.26	Palermo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Spezia - Pescara	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
17.01.26	Avellino - Carrarese	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Avellino - Sampdoria	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Bari - Avellino	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Catanzaro - Avellino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
25.10.25	Avellino - Spezia	0:4
11.05.18	Avellino - Spezia	1:0
21.12.17	Spezia - Avellino	1:0
11.03.17	Spezia - Avellino	2:1
15.10.16	Avellino - Spezia	1:0
05.03.16	Avellino - Spezia	0:1
24.10.15	Spezia - Avellino	1:1

Spezia - Avellino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide