Match Info

Serie B - Round 25

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.5	2.25	Watch
	2.78	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.97	3.4	2.49
	2.81	3.38	2.43	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.38
	2.87	3.58	2.36	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.39)	3.38 ↓ (3.38)	2.39 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
33.1%

Draw
27.7%

Frosinone
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27.2%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.7%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Spezia - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Frosinone will win (votes: 12 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 67.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Radunovic B. (G) 4. Ruggero M. 55. Hristov P. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 6. Bellemo A. 99. Vlahovic V. 60. Romano A. 31. Aurelio G. 70. Adamo E. 90. Skjellerup L. 17. Sernicola L.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 20. Oyono A. 2. Cittadini G. 3. Calvani G. 79. Bracaglia G. (C) 14. Calo G. 8. Koutsoupias I. 16. Cichella M. 7. Ghedjemis F. 17. Kvernadze G. 9. Raimondo A.
Substitutes
9. Artistico G. 24. Bertoncini A. 11. Beruatto P. 34. Comotto C. 18. Conte G. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 8. Nagy A. 32. Vignali L.	19. Corrado N. 40. Fini S. 80. Fiori A. 6. Gelli J. 18. Grosso F. 92. Kone B. L. 12. Lolic E. (G) 5. Marchizza R. 21. Oyono J. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 90. Vergani E. 28. Zilli M.
Coaches
Donadoni R.	Alvini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Calo G. 🟨,
36', Romano A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Kvernadze G. ⚽, Ghedjemis F. (A),
45+3', Ruggero M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hristov P. ↓, Mateju A. ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Ghedjemis F. ⚽, Kvernadze G. (A),
59', Cittadini G. ↓, Gelli J. ↑,
59', Vlahovic V. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
63', Sernicola L. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
64', Bellemo A. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
73', Raimondo A. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
73', Calo G. ↓, Kone B. L. ↑,
77', Adamo E. 🟨,
86', Comotto C. 🟨,
87', Kone B. L. 🟨,
90', Bracaglia G. ↓, Corrado N. ↑,
90+1', Kvernadze G. ↓, Fiori A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Injury) Cassata F. (Muscle Injury) Lapadula G. (Inactive) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Frosinone: Barcella K. (Injury) Gelli F. (Injury) Monterisi I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Frosinone: Koutsoupias I. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
11.02.26	Bari - Spezia	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Spezia - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Sampdoria - Spezia	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Spezia - Avellino	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Palermo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLWL
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
11.02.26	Avellino - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Frosinone - Venezia	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Virtus Entella - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Frosinone - Reggiana	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Monza - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1
25.04.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:2
24.08.24	Spezia - Frosinone	2:1
20.08.20	Spezia - Frosinone	0:1
16.08.20	Frosinone - Spezia	0:1
03.07.20	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1
24.11.19	Spezia - Frosinone	2:0

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