Match Info

Liga Primera - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	DAZN Canada
Nicaragua	Campeones, NicaSports
Usa	DAZN USA


	Sport Sébaco		Matagalpa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.00
	2.02	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.09	3.31	3.22
	2.12	3.46	3.24	Watch
	2.06	3.25	3.15
	2.1	3.48	3.26
	2.04	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.91)	3.33 ↓ (3.35)	3.15 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Sébaco
43.9%

Draw
27.3%

Matagalpa
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

26.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Sébaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Matagalpa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Sébaco than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matagalpa than the current prediction. (-2%)

Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Apertura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals) and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sport Sébaco won 2.

Sport Sébaco has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Matagalpa has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Matagalpa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

Sport Sébaco is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Sébaco has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:22 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sport Sébaco against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 7:10 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sport Sebaco	9	3	2	4	9:17	-8	11
7	Matagalpa	9	3	0	6	4:16	-12	9

Last Results with these Odds

Matagalpa - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 27.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Sébaco
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
10.09.26	Sport Sébaco - Diriangén	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sport Sébaco - UNAN Managua	1:3 ✺
02.09.26	Sport Sébaco - Walter Ferretti	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Sport Sébaco - Real Estelí	0:5 ✺
22.08.26	Managua - Sport Sébaco	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLTLL
- Matagalpa FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
06.09.26	Matagalpa - Diriangén	0:3 ✺
03.09.26	Matagalpa - UNAN Managua	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Municipal Jalapa - Matagalpa	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Matagalpa - San Marcos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
18.07.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	0:3
25.02.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	2:1
18.01.26	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	0:1
27.11.25	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	2:0
21.09.25	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	0:0
30.03.25	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	5:2
07.11.24	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	1:3

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