Match Info

Liga Primera - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Canada	17:00	DAZN Canada
Nicaragua	15:00	Campeones, NicaSports
Usa	17:00	DAZN USA


	Sport Sébaco		Matagalpa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.00
	2.02	3.25	3.1	Watch
	1.68	3.74	4.37
	1.72	3.84	4.38	Watch
	1.68	3.6	4.3
	1.75	3.78	4.38
	2.04	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.91)	3.54 ↑ (3.35)	3.8 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Sébaco
49.8%

Draw
26%

Matagalpa
24.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.1%

26.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

26.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Sébaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Matagalpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Sébaco than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matagalpa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sport Sébaco will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Apertura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals) and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sport Sébaco won 2.

Sport Sébaco has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Matagalpa has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Matagalpa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

Sport Sébaco is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Sébaco has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:22 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sport Sébaco against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 7:10 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sport Sebaco	14	5	2	7	15:27	-12	17
9	Matagalpa	14	3	1	10	7:31	-24	10

Last Results with these Odds

Matagalpa - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 27.54%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Sébaco
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
18.10.26	Sport Sébaco - Municipal Jalapa	1:4 ✺
15.10.26	Sport Sébaco - Rancho Santana	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	San Marcos - Sport Sébaco	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Sport Sébaco - Diriangén	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sport Sébaco - UNAN Managua	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWLL
- Matagalpa FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
17.10.26	Managua - Matagalpa	4:1 ✺
14.10.26	Matagalpa - Walter Ferretti	1:5 ✺
10.10.26	Matagalpa - Real Estelí	1:4 ✺
06.09.26	Matagalpa - Diriangén	0:3 ✺
03.09.26	Matagalpa - UNAN Managua	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
18.07.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	0:3
25.02.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	2:1
18.01.26	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	0:1
27.11.25	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	2:0
21.09.25	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	0:0
30.03.25	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	5:2
07.11.24	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	1:3

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