Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Silk Sport 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 3
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 3, ART Sport 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Mexico	Cinemax, HBO Max, MAX
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2, Canal+ Sport Online
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions, SuperSport PSL
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	TV6, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+


	Sporting Lisbon		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.8
	2.6	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.64	3.3	2.95
	2.6	3.32	2.86	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.8
	2.74	3.33	2.74
	2.6	3.3	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.21)	3.29 ↓ (3.64)	2.84 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
36.9%

Draw
29.2%

Borussia Dortmund
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

26.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Lisbon's form might have worsened.

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.4%	28.4%	16.2%

Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 40 - 54.8%). Borussia D will win (votes: 12 - 16.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 28.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 43.4% – 66.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 3. St. Juste J. 2. Matheus Reis (C) 57. Quenda G. 6. Debast Z. 52. Simoes J. 20. Araujo M. 17. Trincao 19. Harder C.	1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 23. Can E. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 24. Svensson D. 20. Sabitzer M. 13. Gross P. 27. Adeyemi K. 10. Brandt J. 43. Gittens J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
67. Anjos L. 30. Biel 23. Braganca D. 50. Brito A. 41. Diego Callai (G) 47. Esgaio R. 9. Gyokeres V. 25. Inacio G. 1. Israel F. (G) 90. Moreira A. 5. Morita H. 72. Quaresma E.	3. Anton W. 14. Beier M. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 16. Duranville J. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 7. Reyna G. 25. Sule N.
Coaches
Borges R.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
59', Harder C. ↓, Gyokeres V. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
62', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
62', Matheus Reis ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
65', Gittens J. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
66', Guirassy S. 🟨,
68', 0 - 2, Gross P. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
73', Fresneda I. ↓, Quaresma E. ↑,
73', Debast Z. ↓, Biel ↑,
78', Trincao 🟨,
82', 0 - 3, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
86', Adeyemi K. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
86', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
90+3', Gross P. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
90+3', Svensson D. ↓, Sule N. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Borussia D could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sporting will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sporting: Catamo G. (Muscle Injury) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Hjulmand M. (Yellow Cards) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Muscle Injury) Nmecha F. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Bologna	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	RB Leipzig - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWTWL
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
08.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Bologna - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
24.11.21	Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund	3:1
28.09.21	Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
02.11.16	Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
18.10.16	Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund	1:2

Upcoming Matches