Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 February 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	17:00	ESPN 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sport 3, Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Stod 2 Sport 3
India	01:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 STARS Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 3, ART Sport 3
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Macao	04:00	TDM TV
Mexico	14:00	Cinemax, HBO Max, MAX
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 3
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2, Canal+ Sport Online
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions, SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	21:00	TV6, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+


	Sporting Lisbon		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.8
	2.6	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.64	3.3	2.95
	2.6	3.32	2.86	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.8
	2.74	3.33	2.74
	2.6	3.3	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.21)	3.29 ↓ (3.64)	2.84 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
36.9%

Draw
29.2%

Borussia Dortmund
33.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

26.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Lisbon's form might have worsened.

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.4%	28.4%	16.2%

Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 40 - 54.8%). Borussia D will win (votes: 12 - 16.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 28.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 43.4% – 66.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 3. St. Juste J. 2. Matheus Reis (C) 57. Quenda G. 6. Debast Z. 52. Simoes J. 20. Araujo M. 17. Trincao 19. Harder C.	1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 23. Can E. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 24. Svensson D. 20. Sabitzer M. 13. Gross P. 27. Adeyemi K. 10. Brandt J. 43. Gittens J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
67. Anjos L. 30. Biel 23. Braganca D. 50. Brito A. 41. Diego Callai (G) 47. Esgaio R. 9. Gyokeres V. 25. Inacio G. 1. Israel F. (G) 90. Moreira A. 5. Morita H. 72. Quaresma E.	3. Anton W. 14. Beier M. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 16. Duranville J. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 7. Reyna G. 25. Sule N.
Coaches
Borges R.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
59', Harder C. ↓, Gyokeres V. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
62', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
62', Matheus Reis ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
65', Gittens J. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
66', Guirassy S. 🟨,
68', 0 - 2, Gross P. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
73', Fresneda I. ↓, Quaresma E. ↑,
73', Debast Z. ↓, Biel ↑,
78', Trincao 🟨,
82', 0 - 3, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
86', Adeyemi K. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
86', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
90+3', Gross P. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
90+3', Svensson D. ↓, Sule N. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Borussia D could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sporting will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sporting: Catamo G. (Muscle Injury) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Hjulmand M. (Yellow Cards) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Muscle Injury) Nmecha F. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Bologna	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	RB Leipzig - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWTWL
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
08.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Bologna - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
24.11.21	Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund	3:1
28.09.21	Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
02.11.16	Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
18.10.16	Sporting Lisbon - Borussia Dortmund	1:2

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