Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 29 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport OTT 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 7, Pickx+ Sports 7, Play Sports 1
Brazil	Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 16, New World TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 4
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 17
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Sporting Lisbon		Bologna

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	5
	1.68	3.8	5
	1.7	3.85	5.25
	1.72	3.85	5.3
	1.69	3.81	5.55	Watch
	1.67	3.75	5
	1.72	3.93	5.42
	1.7	3.85	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.35)	3.82 ↓ (5.22)	5.22 ↓ (8.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Network on TV: CBSSN

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
56.5%

Draw
25.1%

Bologna
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.4%

18.3%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.9%

17.4%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Lisbon's form might have worsened.

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bologna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bologna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.1%	14.5%	17.4%

Sporting Lisbon - Bologna Predictions

Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 47 - 68.1%). Bologna will win (votes: 12 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 14.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 57.1% – 79.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Israel F. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 6. Debast Z. 17. Trincao 23. Braganca D. 21. Catamo G. 19. Harder C.	34. Ravaglia F. (G) 2. Holm E. 31. Beukema S. 15. Casale N. 33. Miranda J. 14. Iling Junior S. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 18. Pobega T. 11. Ndoye D. 80. Fabbian G. 9. Castro S.
Substitutes
50. Brito A. 78. Couto M. 41. Diego Callai (G) 47. Esgaio R. 73. Felicissimo E. 13. Kovacevic V. (G) 2. Matheus Reis 90. Moreira A. 86. Nel R. 57. Quenda G. 52. Simoes J. 3. St. Juste J.	23. Bagnolini N. (G) 24. Dallinga T. 5. Erlic M. 22. Lykogiannis C. 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 13. Ravaglioli T. 1. Skorupski L. (G)
Coaches
Borges R.	Italiano V.

Preview

Recent matches Sporting is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bologna is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sporting could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Sporting is a favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Gyokeres V. (Knee Injury) Quaresma E. (Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury) St. Juste J. (Injury)

There will not play in Bologna: Aebischer M. (Thigh Injury) Freuler R. (Yellow Cards) Orsolini R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Morita H. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bologna: Erlic M. (Illness)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	RB Leipzig - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
18.01.25	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
11.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 penalties ✺
07.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWLW
- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
25.01.25	Empoli - Bologna	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Bologna - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
18.01.25	Bologna - Monza	3:1 ✺
15.01.25	Inter Milan - Bologna	2:2 ✺
12.01.25	Bologna - Roma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TWWTT

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