Match Info

League One - Round 33

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Durkin J. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.2	5.25	Watch
	1.75	3.35	4.95	Watch
	1.8	3.43	5.27
	1.76	3.34	5.1	Watch
	1.83	3.2	4.4
	1.79	3.25	4.97	Watch
	1.77	3.33	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.98)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	4.99 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
52.8%

Draw
28.4%

Port Vale
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.9%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

26.1%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stevenage Borough's performance.

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Port Vale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stevenage Borough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Port Vale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	0%	17.6%

Stevenage Borough - Port Vale Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Port Vale (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Stevenage (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stevenage Borough will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stevenage Borough will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Stevenage (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Port Vale (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 2. James-Wildin L. 18. White H. 8. Phillips D. 14. Earley S. 23. Thompson L. 7. Cornick H. 25. Phillips M.	46. Gauci J. (G) 24. Kyle John (C) 35. Magloire T. 5. Hall C. 33. Hall G. 25. Humphreys C. 26. Shipley J. 27. Campbell E. 11. Archer E. 45. Gray A. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 4. Houghton J. 10. Kemp D. 44. Patterson P. 19. Reid J. 11. Roberts J. 6. Sweeney D.	13. Amos B. (G) 15. Gordon L. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 14. Ojo F. 21. Sherif M. 19. Waine B. 28. Ward G.
Coaches
Revell A.	Brady J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Thompson L. 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Stockley J. ⚽, Campbell E. (A),
15', Piergianni C. 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Phillips D. ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, Cornick H. ⚽,
33', Cornick H. ↓, Reid J. ↑,
45', Stockley J. 🟨,
45+8', Gray A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Stockley J. ↓, Sherif M. ↑,
60', Gray A. ↓, Waine B. ↑,
60', Magloire T. ↓, Ojo F. ↑,
64', Phillips D. ↓, Houghton J. ↑,
65', Thompson L. ↓, Kemp D. ↑,
65', Phillips M. ↓, Roberts J. ↑,
90', Kyle John ↓, Lawrence-Gabriel J. ↑,
90+1', Earley S. ↓, Sweeney D. ↑,
90+5', White H. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 9 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 2.

Stevenage has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Port Vale has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stevenage may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Port Vale has had a series of home games.

In this match, Stevenage is the team to beat.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 5 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 0.9:0.6).

Outrights of English League One for now

Stevenage: 1.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stevenage	8	3	3	2	12:8	4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
14.02.26	Stevenage Borough - Huddersfield Town	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Barnsley - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
27.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWT
- Port Vale
English EFL Trophy
10.02.26	Port Vale - Stockport County	0:4 ✺
English League One
07.02.26	Port Vale - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
03.02.26	Port Vale - AFC Wimbledon	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leyton Orient - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Port Vale - Exeter City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.08.25	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	1:2
10.02.24	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	2:2
English FA Cup
12.12.23	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	3:4 penalties
02.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Port Vale	1:1
English League One
21.10.23	Stevenage Borough - Port Vale	0:0
English League Two
26.02.22	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	2:0
21.08.21	Stevenage Borough - Port Vale	1:1

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