Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ESPN 1, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football
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Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
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North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
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Turkey	Exxen
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World	Disney+, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia


	Stoke City		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.45	Watch
	6.75	4.4	1.47
	7.29	4.41	1.45	Watch
	7.46	4.57	1.45
	7.2	4.43	1.46	Watch
	7	4.4	1.44
	7.1	4.5	1.45	Watch
	7.29	4.41	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.14 ↑ (4.99)	4.43 ↑ (3.97)	1.45 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
13.3%

Draw
21.4%

Leeds United
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

23.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

22.9%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stoke City's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.2%	21.2%	57.7%

Stoke City - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 11 - 21.6%). Leeds will win (votes: 29 - 56.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 21.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 43.3% – 70.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (G) 16. Wilmot B. 26. Phillips A. 23. Gibson B. 22. Tchamadeu J. 30. Sidibe S. 6. Burger W. 2. Gooch L. 24. Moran A. 9. Cannon T. 11. Koumas L.	1. Meslier I. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 4. Ampadu E. 25. Byram S. 5. Struijk P. 8. Rothwell J. 7. James D. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Solomon M. 10. Piroe J.
Substitutes
10. Bae J. 17. Bocat E. 13. Bonham J. (G) 14. Ennis N. 20. Gallagher S. 18. Lawal B. 5. Rose M. 12. Seko T. 37. Tezgel E.	9. Bamford P. 26. Darlow K. (G) 37. Debayo J. 29. Gnonto W. 23. Guilavogui J. 19. Joseph M. 17. Ramazani L. 33. Schmidt I. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Pelach N.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', Phillips A. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Piroe J. ⚽,
45+2', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gibson B. ↓, Rose M. ↑,
51', Wilmot B. 🟨,
56', Gooch L. ↓, Bocat E. ↑,
56', Sidibe S. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
60', Cannon T. 🟨,
63', 0 - 2, Piroe J. ⚽, James D. (A),
66', Wilmot B. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
76', James D. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
76', Solomon M. ↓, Ramazani L. ↑,
79', Burger W. ↓, Lawal B. ↑,
79', Piroe J. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
80', Rothwell J. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
90+1', Byram S. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stoke won 2.

Stoke has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Leeds is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Leeds is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Stoke: Pearson B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Firpo J. (Muscle Injury) Gruev I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Wober M. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Stoke won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:15 (average 1:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Stoke won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
21.12.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Stoke City - Burnley	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Leeds United
English League Championship
21.12.24	Leeds United - Oxford United	4:0 ✺
14.12.24	Preston North End - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
10.12.24	Leeds United - Middlesbrough	3:1 ✺
07.12.24	Leeds United - Derby County	2:0 ✺
30.11.24	Blackburn Rovers - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
05.03.24	Leeds United - Stoke City	1:0
25.10.23	Stoke City - Leeds United	1:0
09.07.20	Leeds United - Stoke City	5:0
English League Cup
27.08.19	Leeds United - Stoke City	2:3 penalties
English League Championship
24.08.19	Stoke City - Leeds United	0:3
19.01.19	Stoke City - Leeds United	2:1
05.08.18	Leeds United - Stoke City	3:1

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