Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Balakin M. (Ukr)

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	Sturm Graz		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.7	1.7
	4.75	3.75	1.78
	4.76	3.83	1.78
	4.67	4.08	1.67	Watch
	4.93	3.84	1.77
	4.7	3.95	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.76 ↑ (4.67)	3.86 ↓ (4.08)	1.73 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
20.1%

Draw
24.8%

Nottingham Forest
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

23.2%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

21%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.6%	6.8%	83.6%

Sturm Graz - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Sturm (2.43) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nottingham Forest will win (61 of 72 users predict this - 84.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.41% – 93.03%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nottingham Forest will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 6.3%). Nottingham (votes: 28 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Christensen O. (G) 47. Aiwu E. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 35. Geyrhofer N. 23. Malic A. 19. Horvat T. 43. Hodl J. 17. Karic E. 10. Kiteishvili O. 77. Malone M. 8. Rozga F.	13. John Victor (G) 37. Savona N. 31. Milenkovic N. 4. Morato 16. Dominguez N. 22. Yates R. (C) 6. Sangare I. 24. McAtee J. 3. Williams N. 10. Gibbs-White M. 15. Kalimuendo A.
Substitutes
22. Beck J. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 38. Grgic L. 25. Hierlander S. 20. Jatta S. 11. Kayombo A. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 24. Lavalee D. 2. Mitchell J. 5. Oermann T.	44. Abbott Z. 30. Boly W. 64. Hammond B. 5. Murillo 14. Ndoye D. 26. Sels M. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 58. Thompson J. 51. Whitehall A. 67. Willows K. (G)
Coaches
Saumel J.	Dyche S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Gibbs-White M. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Yates R. 🟨,
57', Malone M. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
57', Geyrhofer N. ↓, Lavalee D. ↑,
57', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
66', McAtee J. ↓, Ndoye D. ↑,
73', Kayombo A. 🟨,
77', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Murillo ↑,
78', Horvat T. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
79', Kalimuendo A. ↓, Abbott Z. ↑,
87', Malic A. ↓, Mitchell J. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Sturm have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nottingham is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sturm has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nottingham is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sturm: Beganovic B. (Injury) Borkovic A. (Inactive) Chukwuani T. (Red Card)

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Bakwa D. (Injury) Cunha (Inactive) Douglas Luiz (Thigh Injury) Gunn A. (Knee Injury) Hutchinson O. (Inactive) Igor Jesus (Yellow Cards) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury) Zinchenko O. (Groin Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
02.11.25	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
29.10.25	Admira - Sturm Graz	1:2 penalties ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
26.10.25	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Celtic - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
19.10.25	Blau-Weiss Linz - Sturm Graz	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLW
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
01.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Chelsea	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWLL

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