Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.75	8.5	Watch
	1.47	4.75	6
	1.34	5.4	8.3	Watch
	1.34	6	9.16
	1.34	5.66	8.13	Watch
	1.3	5	8	Watch
	1.37	5.84	8.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.46)	5.49 ↑ (4.85)	8.1 ↑ (6.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
70.7%

Draw
17.5%

Hamburger SV
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

19.6%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

19.1%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stuttgart's performance.

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	17.4%	4.3%

Stuttgart - Hamburger SV Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 22. Assignon L. 3. Hendriks R. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 30. Andres C. 6. Stiller A. 18. Leweling J. 26. Undav D. (C) 10. Fuhrich C. 9. Demirovic E.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 25. Torunarigha J. 8. Elfadli D. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 23. Gronbaek A. 21. Remberg N. (C) 45. Balde F. 20. Vieira F. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 14. Philippe R.
Substitutes
1. Bredlow F. (G) 11. El Khannouss B. 14. Jaquez L. 29. Jeltsch F. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 28. Nartey N. 8. Tomas T. 4. Vagnoman J. 23. Zagadou D.	24. Capaldo N. 19. Downs D. 9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 40. Hermann H. (G) 3. Katterbach N. 43. Nandja S. 27. Otele P. 49. Stange O.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Stiller A. ⚽, Leweling J. (A),
24', Andres C. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Fuhrich C. ⚽, Demirovic E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 3 - 0, Mittelstadt M. ⚽, Fuhrich C. (A),
60', Gronbaek A. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
60', Philippe R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
70', Demirovic E. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
70', Fuhrich C. ↓, El Khannouss B. ↑,
70', Andres C. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
72', Balde F. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
72', Elfadli D. ↓, Capaldo N. ↑,
80', Capaldo N. 🟨,
80', Undav D. 🟨,
82', Undav D. (Penalty Awarded),
86', 4 - 0, El Khannouss B. ⚽, Tomas T. (A),
88', Assignon L. ↓, Vagnoman J. ↑,
88', Undav D. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Stuttgart is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Jovanovic L. (Back Injury) Karazor A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Foot Injury) Jatta B. (Hamstring Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Thigh Injury) Muheim M. (Red Card) Poulsen Y. (Thigh Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury) Vuskovic L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Capaldo N. (Abdominal strain)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:27. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Augsburg - Stuttgart	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Hamburger SV - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1
German 2 Bundesliga
05.06.23	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:3
01.06.23	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:0
Club Friendly
26.08.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German 2 Bundesliga
28.05.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German DFB Pokal
29.10.19	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:2 ET
German 2 Bundesliga
26.10.19	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	6:2

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