Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 5 November 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Denmark	Discovery+, Eurosport 2, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Viaplay


	Crewe Alexandra		Derby County

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	4.75	3.75	1.72
	4.75	3.6	1.7	Watch
	4.98	3.83	1.75
	4.98	3.83	1.7
	4.75	3.7	1.65	Watch
	4.7	3.74	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.85 ↑ (4.24)	3.71 ↓ (3.79)	1.71 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
19.4%

Draw
25.4%

Derby County
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

24.8%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

24.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Crewe Alexandra - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Davies H. (G) 2. Cooney R. 6. Offord L. (C) 5. Demetriou M. 15. O'Riordan C. 28. Billington L. 8. Thomas C. 30. White J. 3. Adebisi R. 9. Baker-Richardson C. 20. Nevitt E.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 12. Smith K. 7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 14. Washington C.
Substitutes
33. Agius C. 13. Booth T. (G) 16. Colkett Ch. 34. Lewis N. 35. Robinson N. 21. Rowe A.	41. Brown D. 6. Cashin E. 9. Collins J. 22. Fornah T. 26. Robinson D. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 2. Wilson K.

Preview

Replayed if draw.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
28.10.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
24.10.23	Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County	0:2 ✺
21.10.23	Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:4 ✺
14.10.23	Crewe Alexandra - Tranmere Rovers	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Crewe Alexandra - Wrexham	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWWL
- Derby County
English League One
31.10.23	Derby County - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
28.10.23	Stevenage Borough - Derby County	3:1 ✺
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
21.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Notts County - Derby County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWLW

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