Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL CUP - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 31 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Sports, beIN Sports Max
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium


	Exeter City		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	7	4.75	1.44	Watch
	6.75	4.75	1.44
	7	4.75	1.42	Watch
	3.8	3.75	1.82
	7.21	4.78	1.45
	4	3.8	1.7
	7.1	4.8	1.44	Watch
	6.6	4.7	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.18 ↑ (3.76)	4.51 ↑ (3.66)	1.52 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
15.5%

Draw
21.3%

Middlesbrough
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.7%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

25.3%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Middlesbrough's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Middlesbrough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Exeter City - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.07% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sinisalo V. (G) 4. Aimson W. (C) 24. Fitzwater J. 5. Hartridge A. 7. Mitchell D. 16. Kite H. 8. Trevitt R. 23. Taylor K. 3. Jules Z. 11. Scott J. 10. Muskwe A.	23. Glover T. (G) 15. Dijksteel A. 6. Fry D. (C) 17. McNair P. 24. Bangura A. 7. Hackney H. 4. Barlaser D. 11. Jones I. 10. Rogers M. 18. Silvera S. 9. Latte Lath E.
Substitutes
51. Cunningham A. 42. Dean T. 39. Diabate C. 31. Harper V. 30. MacDonald S. (G) 47. Richards J. 13. Wildschut Y.	5. Clarke M. 19. Coburn J. 22. Coulson H. 25. Crooks M. 27. Engel L. 14. Gilbert A. 16. Howson J. 32. Jones J. (G) 3. van den Berg R.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Carrick M.

Preview

Exeter has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Middlesbrough is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Exeter have a series of home games.

In this match Middlesbrough is a favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Forss M. (Thigh Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) McGree R. (Foot Injury) O'Brien L. (Ankle Injury) Smith T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
28.10.23	Exeter City - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
21.10.23	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Exeter City - Arsenal U21	0:5 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Exeter City - Barnsley	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
28.10.23	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:2 ✺
24.10.23	Norwich City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
21.10.23	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
07.10.23	Sunderland - Middlesbrough	0:4 ✺
03.10.23	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWWW

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