Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 22 February 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1, V Sport
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Toulouse		Benfica

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.75	1.91
	3.6	3.75	1.93
	3.8	3.8	1.98	Watch
	3.75	3.8	1.97
	3.79	3.8	1.97
	3.9	3.6	1.85
	3.85	3.94	1.99
	3.8	3.8	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (2.87)	3.78 ↑ (3.63)	1.94 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
25.3%

Draw
25.4%

Benfica
49.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.9%

26.8%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.2%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulouse's form might have worsened.

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benfica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toulouse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	11.1%	83.3%

Toulouse - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 90 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 5 - 5.6%). Benfica will win (votes: 75 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 75.6% – 91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Restes G. (G) 3. Desler M. 6. Costa L. 2. Nicolaisen R. 23. Diarra M. 4. Spierings S. 8. Sierro V. (C) 15. Donnum A. 37. Gboho Y. 17. Suazo G. 9. Dallinga T.	1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 5. Morato 87. Neves J. 20. Joao Mario 27. Rafa Silva 11. Di Maria A. 19. Tengstedt C. 7. David Neres
Substitutes
80. Babicka S. 24. Casseres C. 10. Cissoko I. 30. Dominguez A. 11. Gelabert Pina C. 12. Kamanzi W. 25. Keben K. 40. Lacombe J. (G) 19. Magri F. 20. Schmidt N. 22. Skytta N.	44. Araujo T. 8. Aursnes F. 9. Cabral A. 3. Carreras A. 61. Florentino 75. Gomes A. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 10. Kokcu O. 36. Marcos Leonardo 32. Rollheiser B. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Martinez C.	Schmidt R.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Toulouse is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benfica in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Toulouse could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Benfica will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Toulouse: Aboukhlal Z. (Knee Injury) Genreau D. (Hernia) Mawissa Elebi C. (Red Card) Schmidt N. (Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bernat J. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
18.02.24	Monaco - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Benfica - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.02.24	Toulouse - Nantes	1:2 ✺
04.02.24	Reims - Toulouse	2:3 ✺
28.01.24	Toulouse - Lens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WLLWL
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
18.02.24	Benfica - Vizela	6:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Benfica - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
11.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.02.24	Vizela - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.02.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Benfica - Toulouse	2:1

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