Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 23

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Arena


	Triestina		Lumezzane

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.8
	2.98	3.1	2.32	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.37
	3.05	3.14	2.27	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.3
	2.95	2.86	2.42	Watch
	3.1	3	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.32)	2.99 ↓ (3.25)	2.41 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
31.2%

Draw
30.7%

Lumezzane
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

28.1%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

28.4%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Triestina's form might have worsened.

Lumezzane has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lumezzane's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Triestina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lumezzane, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Triestina - Lumezzane Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Lumezzane (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Lumezzane (1.54) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Triestina (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 2 - 25%). Lumezzane (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matosevic K. (G) 14. Anzolin M. 6. Moretti A. 23. Silvestri T. (C) 21. Tonetto M. 17. Jonsson K. 15. Voca I. 26. D'Amore F. 10. D'Urso C. 29. Kljajic N. 27. Faggioli A.	50. Drago G. (G) 23. Moscati M. 31. Stivanello R. 29. Gallea F. 70. Mancini S. 8. Rocca M. 4. Paghera F. 19. Rolando M. 11. Ghillani A. 20. Caccavo L. 21. Iori M.
Substitutes
8. Attys C. 19. Bagnoli E. 22. Borriello F. (G) 34. D'Aniello R. 61. Diakite M. (G) 25. Ellertsson M. P. 35. Faraci G. 31. Guillen Gamboa M. 5. Kosijer S. 37. Minenna 3. Palma L.	12. Battagliola L. (G) 99. Belvedere F. 5. D'Agostino S. 9. Donnarumma A. 7. Ferro M. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 45. Monachello G. 95. Motta M. 27. Napolitano G. 3. Pagliari M. 14. Rihai A. 41. Scanzi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Rolando M. 🟨,
40', Faggioli A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Drago G. 🟨,
57', Mancini S. ↓, Pagliari M. ↑,
58', Iori M. ↓, Ferro M. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Ferro M. ⚽,
74', 1 - 1, Jonsson K. ⚽,
79', Ghillani A. ↓, Rihai A. ↑,
79', Rolando M. ↓, D'Agostino S. ↑,
81', Paghera F. 🟨,
84', Caccavo L. ↓, Donnarumma A. ↑,
86', Faggioli A. ↓, Attys C. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Kljajic N. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Triestina is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lumezzane is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Triestina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Lumezzane	8	3	2	3	10:11	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Triestina - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.42%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Lumezzane - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Ospitaletto - Triestina	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Lecco - Triestina	1:0 ✺
05.01.26	Triestina - Alcione	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Vicenza Virtus - Triestina	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Triestina - AlbinoLeffe	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW
- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Lumezzane - Alcione	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Pergolettese - Lumezzane	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Lumezzane - Vicenza Virtus	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Virtus Verona - Lumezzane	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Lumezzane - Lecco	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.25	Lumezzane - Triestina	1:2
02.02.25	Lumezzane - Triestina	1:3
26.09.24	Triestina - Lumezzane	2:3
18.02.24	Lumezzane - Triestina	3:0
14.10.23	Triestina - Lumezzane	2:1

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