Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 27

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258, Sky Sport Calcio


	Triestina		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.72	Watch
	2.69	2.87	3.02
	2.57	2.89	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.63
	2.56	2.72	2.82	Watch
	2.62	2.75	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.67)	2.84 ↓ (3.19)	2.84 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
35.4%

Draw
32.3%

Novara
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

28.7%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

28.4%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Novara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Triestina - Novara Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Triestina will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Triestina (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matosevic K. (G) 78. Anton A. 20. Davis H. 14. Anzolin M. (C) 21. Tonetto M. 17. Jonsson K. 15. Voca I. 26. D'Amore F. 77. Ascione S. 10. D'Urso C. 27. Faggioli A.	1. Boseggia E. (G) 28. Cannavaro A. 5. Bertoncini D. 26. Lorenzini F. 71. D'Alessio L. 19. Collodel R. 21. Ranieri R. (C) 72. Agyemang G. 11. Ledonne N. 7. Lanini E. 9. Alberti T.
Substitutes
8. Attys C. 19. Bagnoli E. 6. Begheldo G. 22. Borriello F. (G) 25. Ellertsson M. P. 43. Gningue O. 13. Jamaal M. 29. Kljajic N. 5. Kosijer S. 30. Neri F. (G) 28. Pedicillo L. 9. Vertainen E. 16. Vicario J.	36. Arboscello R. 6. Citi A. 65. Cortese A. 20. da Graca C. 17. Dell'Erba D. 3. Lartey S. 4. Malaspina M. 23. Morosini L. 16. Raffaelli M. (G) 12. Rossetti M. (G) 2. Scarpetta J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tonetto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alberti T. ↓, da Graca C. ↑,
56', Faggioli A. ↓, Kljajic N. ↑,
59', Lanini E. ↓, Morosini L. ↑,
61', Morosini L. 🟨,
68', Voca I. 🟨,
70', 0 - 1, da Graca C. ⚽,
71', Ascione S. ↓, Jamaal M. ↑,
71', Anton A. ↓, Kosijer S. ↑,
77', Ledonne N. ↓, Dell'Erba D. ↑,
77', Jamaal M. 🟨,
84', Davis H. ↓, Vertainen E. ↑,
85', Ranieri R. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
90+5', D'Amore F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Novara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Triestina won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 3.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Novara	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
11.02.26	Renate - Triestina	4:0 ✺
08.02.26	Triestina - Inter U23	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Triestina	4:1 ✺
23.01.26	Triestina - Lumezzane	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ospitaletto - Triestina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
11.02.26	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Novara - Brescia	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Pro Vercelli - Novara	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Novara - Pro Patria	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Trento - Novara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
05.10.25	Novara - Triestina	0:0
25.04.25	Triestina - Novara	6:0
14.12.24	Novara - Triestina	2:3
20.04.24	Triestina - Novara	2:2
17.12.23	Novara - Triestina	2:3
14.01.23	Triestina - Novara	2:0
13.09.22	Novara - Triestina	1:1

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