Match Info

GERMANY: BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 19

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Arena 4
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Union Berlin		Darmstadt

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.8	Watch
	1.75	3.75	5	Watch
	1.72	3.75	5.3
	1.72	3.79	5.43
	1.6	3.8	5	Watch
	1.74	4.03	5.23	Watch
	1.71	3.8	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.65)	3.8 ↓ (3.97)	5.15 ↓ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
56.2%

Draw
25.2%

Darmstadt
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

23.9%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

23.2%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Darmstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	15.8%	5.3%

Union Berlin - Darmstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (30 of 38 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.99% – 91.91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 31. Knoche R. 2. Vogt K. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 29. Tousart L. 6. Gosens R. 33. Kral A. 13. Schafer A. 16. Hollerbach B. 17. Behrens K.	1. Schuhen M. (G) 38. Riedel C. 23. Gjasula K. 14. Klarer C. 26. Bader M. 32. Holland F. (C) 15. Nurnberger F. 17. Justvan J. 28. Franjic B. 27. Skarke T. 24. Pfeiffer L.
Substitutes
7. Aaronson B. 11. Bedia C. 12. Busk J. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 19. Haberer J. 3. Jaeckel P. 9. Kaufmann M. 8. Khedira R. 20. Laidouni A.	30. Brunst A. (G) 25. Holtmann G. 11. Kempe T. 5. Maglica M. 6. Mehlem M. 16. Muller A. 20. Muller J. 29. Vilhelmsson O. 4. Zimmermann C.
Coaches
Bjelica N.	Lieberknecht T.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 2.

Recent matches Union Berlin is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Darmstadt is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Union Berlin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Darmstadt have a series of home games.

In this match Union Berlin is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Union Berlin won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
24.01.24	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.23	Union Berlin - Köln	2:0 ✺
16.12.23	Bochum - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWWL
- SV Darmstadt 98
German Bundesliga
20.01.24	Darmstadt - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:2 ✺
13.01.24	Darmstadt - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.12.23	Hoffenheim - Darmstadt	3:3 ✺
16.12.23	Darmstadt - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.08.23	Darmstadt - Union Berlin	1:4
German 2 Bundesliga
05.05.19	Darmstadt - Union Berlin	2:1
01.12.18	Union Berlin - Darmstadt	3:1
28.04.18	Darmstadt - Union Berlin	3:1
24.11.17	Union Berlin - Darmstadt	3:3
13.03.15	Darmstadt - Union Berlin	5:0
27.09.14	Union Berlin - Darmstadt	1:1

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