Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 11

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Zorrilla (Valladolid)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport LaLiga
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
Norway	TV2 Play
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen, Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN+
World	Prima+ app, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia


	Valladolid		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.75	3.6	2	Watch
	4.01	3.6	2.04
	3.78	3.57	2.04	Watch
	3.75	3.5	2
	3.94	3.7	1.97	Watch
	3.75	3.6	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (3.51)	3.58 ↓ (3.75)	2 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Valladolid
25.3%

Draw
26.7%

Villarreal
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

25.7%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

25.4%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valladolid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valladolid than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.3%	4.7%	86%

Valladolid - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (37 of 43 users predict this - 86.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.69% – 96.41%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hein K. (G) 2. Perez L. 5. Sanchez J. 3. Torres D. 22. Rosa L. 11. Moro R. 12. Martin M. 15. Comert E. 23. Anuar (C) 21. Amallah S. 7. Sylla M.	13. Conde D. (G) 17. Kiko Femenia 2. Costa L. 3. Albiol R. (C) 23. Cardona S. 11. Akhomach I. 14. Comesana S. 10. Parejo D. 16. Baena A. 15. Barry T. 19. Pepe N.
Substitutes
1. Ferreira A. (G) 35. Juma Bah A. 20. Juric S. 24. Kenedy 14. Latasa J. 18. Machis D. 9. Marcos Andre 4. Meseguer Cavas V. A. 19. Ndiaye A. 8. Perez K. 30. Ruiz R. C. 10. Sanchez I.	12. Bernat J. 33. Cabanes P. 55. Gomez R. (G) 18. Gueye P. 1. Junior Reis (G) 5. Kambwala W. 26. Navarro P. 22. Perez A. 21. Pino Y. 20. Terrats R.
Coaches
Pezzolano P.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Barry T. ⚽, Kiko Femenia (A),
45+1', Parejo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Comesana S. 🟨,
50', Sylla M. 🟨,
56', Sanchez J. 🟨,
59', Costa L. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Sylla M. (Pen),
61', Comert E. 🟨,
69', Torres D. 🟨,
70', Barry T. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
71', Comesana S. ↓, Gueye P. ↑,
71', Sylla M. ↓, Latasa J. ↑,
71', Martin M. ↓, Meseguer Cavas V. A. ↑,
79', Amallah S. ↓, Perez K. ↑,
82', Akhomach I. ↓, Pino Y. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Perez A. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
88', Comert E. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
88', Anuar ↓, Kenedy ↑,
90', Pepe N. ↓, Terrats R. ↑,
90', Baena A. ↓, Bernat J. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valladolid won 1.

Valladolid is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Villarreal is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Valladolid could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Villarreal will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Valladolid: de la Hoz C. (Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Knee Injury) Moreno G. (Muscle Injury) Pedraza A. (Injury) Suarez D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Valladolid: Ozkacar C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Bailly E. (Injury) Kambwala W. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Valladolid won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:13 (average 0.6:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Valladolid won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:6 (average 0.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Valladolid
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.24	Deportivo Alavés - Valladolid	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
10.10.24	Leganés - Valladolid	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.10.24	Valladolid - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ✺
27.09.24	Valladolid - Mallorca	1:2 ✺
24.09.24	Sevilla - Valladolid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLLLL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
20.10.24	Villarreal - Getafe	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
30.09.24	Villarreal - Las Palmas	3:1 ✺
26.09.24	Espanyol - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
22.09.24	Villarreal - Barcelona	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
15.04.23	Villarreal - Valladolid	1:2
13.08.22	Valladolid - Villarreal	0:3
13.05.21	Valladolid - Villarreal	0:2
02.11.20	Villarreal - Valladolid	2:0
08.02.20	Valladolid - Villarreal	1:1
21.09.19	Villarreal - Valladolid	2:0
08.02.19	Valladolid - Villarreal	0:0

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