Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Folke Anderson (Esmeraldas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Vargas Torres		Gualaceo

	1	X	2
	2.28	2.98	3
	2.36	2.9	3.29
	1.51	4.07	5.93	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.32	3.05	2.94	Watch
	2.82	2.71	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (3.33)	3.12 ↑ (2.75)	3.43 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vargas Torres
41.6%

Draw
30.6%

Gualaceo
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

33.1%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

32.9%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vargas Torres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vargas Torres's performance.

Gualaceo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gualaceo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vargas Torres than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vargas Torres that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gualaceo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Vargas Torres - Gualaceo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vargas Torres will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Gualaceo will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vargas Torres (votes: 2 - 40%). Gualaceo (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Narvaez J. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Angulo Quinonez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 3 - 0, Cardenas ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Vargas Torres may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vargas Torres won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Vargas Torres won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSD Vargas Torres
Ecuadorian Serie B
10.07.25	9 de Octubre - Vargas Torres	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	1:0 ✺
24.06.25	Leones del Norte - Vargas Torres	3:2 ✺
18.06.25	Vargas Torres - 22 de Julio	2:1 ✺
10.06.25	Chacaritas - Vargas Torres	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWLWT
- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.07.25	Gualaceo - Cumbayá	2:0 ✺
01.07.25	San Antonio - Gualaceo	2:2 ✺
26.06.25	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	3:0 ✺
17.06.25	Gualaceo - Imbabura	3:2 ✺
11.06.25	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
07.05.25	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	2:1
08.09.24	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	1:0
17.07.24	Vargas Torres - Gualaceo	0:1
05.06.24	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	0:0
10.04.24	Vargas Torres - Gualaceo	1:0

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