Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi (Verona)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
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Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
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Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
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Chile	Disney+
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Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Verona		Sassuolo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.3	Watch
	2.35	3.1	3.25
	2.42	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.38	3.15	3.45
	2.39	2.70	3.65	Watch
	2.39	3.12	3.43
	2.37	3.1	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.54)	3.03 ↓ (3.4)	3.38 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Verona
40.2%

Draw
31.5%

Sassuolo
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

28.1%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

27.5%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Verona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Sassuolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sassuolo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Verona than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sassuolo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14%	69.8%	16.3%

Verona - Sassuolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Verona will win (votes: 6 - 14.3%). Sassuolo will win (votes: 7 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 29 - 69%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 55% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 14 - 87.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Verona (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Verona (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Sassuolo (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Tie (votes: 14 - 82.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montipo L. (G) 5. Nunez U. 15. Nelsson V. 3. Frese M. 7. Belghali R. 8. Serdar S. (C) 63. Gagliardini R. 24. Bernede A. 12. Bradaric D. 17. Giovane 16. Orban G.	49. Muric A. (G) 6. Walukiewicz S. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 3. Doig J. 40. Vranckx A. 18. Matic N. 90. Kone I. 7. Volpato C. 99. Pinamonti A. 45. Lauriente A.
Substitutes
72. Ajayi J. 11. Akpa Akpro J. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 76. Castagnini M. (G) 70. Cham F. 23. Ebosse E. 20. Kastanos G. 25. Mosquera D. 36. Niasse C. 34. Perilli S. (G) 4. Santiago Y. 9. Sarr A. 19. Slotsager T. 6. Valentini N.	11. Boloca D. 5. Cande F. 9. Cheddira W. 25. Coulibaly W. 20. Fadera A. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 24. Moro L. 26. Odenthal C. 77. Pierini N. 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 14. Skjellerup L. 42. Thorstvedt K. 13. Turati S. (G)
Coaches
Zanetti P.	Grosso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Grosso F. 🟨,
44', Serdar S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Cheddira W. 🟨,
59', Volpato C. ↓, Pierini N. ↑,
60', Lauriente A. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
60', Vranckx A. ↓, Thorstvedt K. ↑,
64', Pierini N. 🟨,
66', Gagliardini R. ↓, Akpa Akpro J. ↑,
71', Pinamonti A. (Pen),
71', 0 - 1, Pinamonti A. ⚽,
75', Muric A. 🟨,
76', Serdar S. ↓, Niasse C. ↑,
77', Bernede A. ↓, Sarr A. ↑,
82', Kone I. ↓, Iannoni E. ↑,
85', Giovane ↓, Mosquera D. ↑,
86', Bradaric D. ↓, Kastanos G. ↑,
87', Pinamonti A. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
90+2', Belghali R. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Verona won 3.

Verona is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sassuolo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Verona: Al Musrati (Thigh Injury) Harroui A. (Muscle Injury) Oyegoke D. (Inactive) Suslov T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sassuolo: Paz Y. (Calf Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Verona won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Verona won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hellas Verona
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Roma - Verona	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Verona - Venezia	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Verona - Juventus	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Verona - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lazio - Verona	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLTTL
- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Sassuolo - Udinese	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Como - Sassuolo	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Inter Milan - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Sassuolo - Lazio	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Cremonese - Sassuolo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.03.24	Verona - Sassuolo	1:0
01.09.23	Sassuolo - Verona	3:1
08.04.23	Verona - Sassuolo	2:1
24.10.22	Sassuolo - Verona	2:1
16.01.22	Sassuolo - Verona	2:4
21.08.21	Verona - Sassuolo	2:3
13.03.21	Sassuolo - Verona	3:2

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