Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 34

Date: 19 May 2024, Sunday

Location: GelreDome (Arnhem)

Referee: Blank E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Sport Extra


	Vitesse		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.33	1.65	Watch
	4.2	4.5	1.66
	4.45	4.45	1.65	Watch
	4.59	4.65	1.68
	4.6	4.6	1.65
	4.4	4.5	1.6
	4.41	4.6	1.65	Watch
	4.5	4.4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↓ (5.43)	4.5 ↑ (4.5)	1.65 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitesse
21.3%

Draw
21.1%

Ajax
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

20.9%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

20.3%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitesse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	6.7%	73.3%

Vitesse - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Vitesse will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Room E. (G) 2. Arcus C. 6. Oroz D. 15. Hendriks R. 5. Mica Pinto 25. de Regt G. 14. Aaronson P. 21. Tielemans M. 17. Kozlowski K. 8. van Ginkel M. (C) 7. Boutrah A.	1. Rulli G. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 13. Kaplan A. 2. Rensch D. 6. Henderson J. 16. Mannsverk S. 8. Taylor K. 10. Akpom Ch. 9. Brobbey B. 7. Bergwijn S. (C)
Substitutes
55. Bramel T. (G) 19. Buitink T. 13. Cornelisse E. 22. Domgjoni T. 28. Hadj Moussa A. 23. Huisman D. 29. Isimat-Mirin N. 30. Mazilu A. 20. Meulensteen M. 31. Schubert M. (G) 43. Van Zwam G. 58. Visser A.	23. Berghuis S. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 11. Forbs C. 39. Godts M. 12. Gorter J. (G) 38. Hlynsson K. 18. Medic J. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 19. Rijkhoff J. 33. Tahirovic B. 21. van den Boomen B.
Coaches
Sturing E.	van 't Schip J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Oroz D. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Boutrah A. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Sutalo J. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Sutalo J. 🟨,
63', Mannsverk S. ↓, Berghuis S. ↑,
64', van Ginkel M. ↓, Buitink T. ↑,
64', Oroz D. ↓, Van Zwam G. ↑,
71', Tielemans M. ↓, Cornelisse E. ↑,
71', de Regt G. ↓, Hadj Moussa A. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Kozlowski K. ⚽, Buitink T. (A),
84', Henderson J. ↓, Tahirovic B. ↑,
90+1', Bergwijn S. 🟨,
90+1', Hadj Moussa A. 🟨,
90+2', Kozlowski K. ↓, Huisman D. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 2, Berghuis S. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

Vitesse is Relegated to Eerste Divisie

Ajax is Qualified for Europa League (Qualification )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vitesse won 0.

Recent matches Vitesse is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ajax is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Ajax is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Vitesse won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 19-50.

Including matches at home between the teams Vitesse won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11-22.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eredivisie
12.05.24	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:3 ✺
05.05.24	Utrecht - Vitesse	1:0 ✺
28.04.24	Vitesse - Fortuna Sittard	3:2 ✺
13.04.24	PSV Eindhoven - Vitesse	6:0 ✺
07.04.24	Vitesse - NEC Nijmegen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLWLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
12.05.24	Ajax - Almere City	3:0 ✺
05.05.24	Volendam - Ajax	1:4 ✺
24.04.24	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
14.04.24	Ajax - Twente	2:1 ✺
07.04.24	Feyenoord - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
25.11.23	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0
26.02.23	Vitesse - Ajax	1:2
09.11.22	Ajax - Vitesse	2:2
15.05.22	Vitesse - Ajax	2:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
09.02.22	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0
Dutch Eredivisie
29.08.21	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0
16.05.21	Vitesse - Ajax	1:3

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