Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Weserstadion (Bremen)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Werder Bremen		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	3	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3.1
	2.08	3.55	3.45
	2.11	3.7	3.53
	2.04	3.68	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.12	3.74	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.33)	3.6 (3.6)	3.36 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
44.8%

Draw
26.6%

Mainz
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

26.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.9%	38.2%	8.8%

Werder Bremen - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 18 - 52.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 8.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 38.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 36.1% – 69.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mainz (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Mainz (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 25%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 22. Malatini J. 32. Friedl M. (C) 2. Deman O. 17. Grull M. 6. Stage J. 10. Bittencourt L. 18. Puertas C. 20. Schmid R. 9. Topp K.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.
Substitutes
27. Agu F. 31. Coulibaly K. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 7. Mbangula S. 29. Musah S. 11. Njinmah J. 33. Schmetgens M. 23. Schmidt I.	14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Thioune D.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Nebel P. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
38', Bittencourt L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Topp K. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Becker S. (A),
55', Malatini J. ↓, Schmetgens M. ↑,
62', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
63', Stage J. 🟨,
69', Sugawara Y. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
69', Bittencourt L. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
72', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
72', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
81', Widmer S. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
85', Grull M. ↓, Musah S. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
87', Becker S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Werder could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Werder: Adeh W. (Knee Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly K. (Thigh Injury) Milosevic J. (Back Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Heel Injury) Bell S. (Injury) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Werder: Agu F. (Muscle Injury) Mbangula S. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Werder won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.2:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29% Werder Bremen: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Werder Bremen - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.81%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
08.03.26	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Werder Bremen - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLL
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Mainz	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1
31.01.25	Werder Bremen - Mainz	1:0
15.09.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:2
03.02.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	0:1
02.09.23	Werder Bremen - Mainz	4:0
08.04.23	Mainz - Werder Bremen	2:2
15.10.22	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2

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