Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Weserstadion (Bremen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	15:30	DAZN
Bulgaria	16:30	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	10:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	11:30	ESPN Premium
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	18:30	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	15:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	14:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	20:00	Sony LIV
Israel	16:30	Sport 3
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	08:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	22:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	22:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	21:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, PPTV Sports
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United Kingdom	14:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	10:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Werder Bremen		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	3	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3.1
	2.08	3.55	3.45
	2.11	3.7	3.53
	2.04	3.68	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.12	3.74	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.33)	3.6 (3.6)	3.36 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
44.8%

Draw
26.6%

Mainz
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

26.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

27%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.9%	38.2%	8.8%

Werder Bremen - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 18 - 52.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 8.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 38.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 36.1% – 69.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mainz (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Mainz (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 25%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 22. Malatini J. 32. Friedl M. (C) 2. Deman O. 17. Grull M. 6. Stage J. 10. Bittencourt L. 18. Puertas C. 20. Schmid R. 9. Topp K.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.
Substitutes
27. Agu F. 31. Coulibaly K. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 7. Mbangula S. 29. Musah S. 11. Njinmah J. 33. Schmetgens M. 23. Schmidt I.	14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Thioune D.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Nebel P. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
38', Bittencourt L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Topp K. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Becker S. (A),
55', Malatini J. ↓, Schmetgens M. ↑,
62', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
63', Stage J. 🟨,
69', Sugawara Y. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
69', Bittencourt L. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
72', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
72', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
81', Widmer S. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
85', Grull M. ↓, Musah S. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
87', Becker S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Werder could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Werder: Adeh W. (Knee Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly K. (Thigh Injury) Milosevic J. (Back Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Heel Injury) Bell S. (Injury) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Werder: Agu F. (Muscle Injury) Mbangula S. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Werder won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.2:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Werder Bremen	7	3	3	1	15:14	1	12
8	Mainz	8	3	1	4	17:17	0	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Werder Bremen: 0.45% Mainz: 0.2%

Last Results with these Odds

Werder Bremen - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.81%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
08.03.26	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Werder Bremen - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLL
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Mainz	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1
31.01.25	Werder Bremen - Mainz	1:0
15.09.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:2
03.02.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	0:1
02.09.23	Werder Bremen - Mainz	4:0
08.04.23	Mainz - Werder Bremen	2:2
15.10.22	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2

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