Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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World	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.75	1.57	Watch
	4.95	4.7	1.58	Watch
	5.08	5.1	1.59
	5.02	4.98	1.59	Watch
	4.75	4.5	1.53	Watch
	5.17	5.02	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.95 ↑ (4.48)	4.84 ↑ (4.56)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
19.4%

Draw
19.8%

Bayern Munich
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

20.9%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

20%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	12.5%	68.7%

Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 9 - 18.8%). Bayern will win (votes: 33 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 55.7% – 81.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Wolfsburg (2.14) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 3 - 30%). Bayern (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 26. Kumbedi S. 39. Wimmer P. 5. Vini Souza 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.	40. Urbig J. (G) 44. Stanisic J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. (C) 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 10. Musiala J. 11. Jackson N. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 31. Gerhardt Y. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 32. Svanberg M. 25. Zehnter A.	14. Diaz L. 22. Guerreiro R. 42. Karl L. 27. Laimer K. 39. Ndiaye B. 1. Neuer M. (G) 45. Pavlovic A. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D.
Coaches
Hecking D.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Upamecano D. ↑,
46', Goretzka L. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Olise M. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
58', Jackson N. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
66', Wimmer P. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
66', Eriksen C. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
74', Vini Souza ↓, Gerhardt Y. ↑,
74', Daghim A. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
76', Musiala J. ↓, Karl L. ↑,
84', Ito H. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
90', Kumbedi S. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
90+1', Shiogai K. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Bayern is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Groin Injury) Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury) Wind J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Davies A. (Hamstring Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 17:66. (average 0.9:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:29. (average 1.2:3.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 80.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	5	3	2	0	16:4	12	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Wolfsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTWLL
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
06.05.26	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Bayern Munich - Heidenheim	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	5:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1
18.01.25	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	3:2
25.08.24	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	2:3
12.05.24	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	2:0
20.12.23	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	1:2
05.02.23	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	2:4
14.08.22	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	2:0

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