Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 March 2025, Monday


	Alex De Minaur		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.78	2	Watch
	1.76	2.08	Watch
	1.79	2.03	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.76	2.06	Watch
	1.76	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.58)	2.06 ↓ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
54%

Joao Fonseca
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joao Fonseca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.9%	0%	64.1%

Alex De Minaur - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 14 - 35.9%). Fonseca will win (votes: 25 - 64.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 49% – 79.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 11. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 60.

Recent matches De Minaur is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fonseca is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

De Minaur could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Alex De Minaur - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
10.03.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	David Goffin - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.25	Marin Cilic - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Ugo Humbert	2:0 ✺
20.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWW

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