Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday


	Alex De Minaur		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.26	Watch
	1.68	2.36
	1.65	2.3	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.64	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.77)	2.29 ↑ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
58.1%

Tommy Paul
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Alex De Minaur aligns with the current prediction.

The ML Model estimate for Tommy Paul aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	0%	34.8%

Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Paul will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 9. Paul is ranked ATP: 26.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 4.

De Minaur has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paul is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 1.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Hamburg
21.05.26	Luciano Darderi - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
20.05.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Hamburg
21.05.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Tommy Paul - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Tommy Paul - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Tommy Paul - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
13.05.25	Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Los Cabos
03.08.23	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Acapulco
04.03.23	Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Eastbourne
23.06.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Roma
11.05.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.22	Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul	2:0

Upcoming Matches