Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Daniil Medvedev		Learner Tien

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.46	2.75	Watch
	1.46	2.92
	1.98	1.83	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.46	2.78	Watch
	1.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.55)	2.66 ↑ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
63.5%

Learner Tien
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Learner Tien could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.4%	0%	20.6%

Daniil Medvedev - Learner Tien Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Tien (votes: 5 - 26.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 37 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +20 Games - Medvedev (2.10) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +4.5 Games - Tien (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (27 of 34 users predict this - 79.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.82% – 93%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 18 - 75%). Tien (votes: 6 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 12. Tien is ranked ATP: 29.

Medvedev is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tien is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	3:2 ✺
20.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Quentin Halys	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jesper De Jong	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
11.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWW
- Learner Tien
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Learner Tien - Nuno Borges	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Shevchenko	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Learner Tien - Marcos Giron	3:2 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
08.10.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	1:2
ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired
ATP Australian Open
16.01.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	3:2

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