Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Lyon, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lyon 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	17:15	Max Sport 2
Czech Republic	16:15	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	16:15	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	17:15	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	16:15	beIN Sports 3
Poland	16:15	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Romania	17:15	Prima Sport 4
Sweden	16:15	TV4 Play
United Kingdom	15:15	Sky Sports Tennis


	Flavio Cobolli		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.70	2.10
	1.74	2.06	Watch
	1.67	2.25	Watch
	1.76	2.07
	1.75	2.06	Watch
	1.76	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.4)	2.08 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flavio Cobolli
54.4%

Lorenzo Musetti
45.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flavio Cobolli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Flavio Cobolli's performance.

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Musetti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flavio Cobolli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Musetti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Flavio Cobolli - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cobolli will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Musetti will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 1 - 50%). Musetti (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cobolli is ranked ATP: 6., and Musetti is ranked ATP: 26..

In recent outings, Cobolli has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Musetti shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Cobolli could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Cobolli has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:2 (averaging 0:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Flavio Cobolli - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 39.41%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.59%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Lyon
23.10.26	Flavio Cobolli - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
22.10.26	Flavio Cobolli - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Roman Safiullin - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
26.09.26	Flavio Cobolli - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLL
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Lyon
23.10.26	Luca Van Assche - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
21.10.26	Moise Kouame - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
19.10.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Yi Zhou - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Arthur Fery	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
30.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli	Cobolli F. retired
Exhibition Italian Championship Men
22.06.20	Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli	2:0

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