Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Francis Tiafoe		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.92	1.89
	1.97	1.98
	2.02	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.91
	1.96	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.62)	1.91 ↓ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
49.5%

Matteo Arnaldi
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francis Tiafoe's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francis Tiafoe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.2%	0%	75.8%

Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 66 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 16 - 24.2%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 50 - 75.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 65.5% – 86.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Arnaldi (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 41.5 Games - over (2.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

#ad

Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 22. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 104.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Arnaldi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.67%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Roland Garros
30.05.26	Jaime Faria - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
28.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
25.05.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Francis Tiafoe	1:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
30.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Raphael Collignon	3:2 ✺
28.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	3:1 ✺
26.05.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Francis Tiafoe	2:3

Upcoming Matches