Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday


	Learner Tien		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.75	2.05
	1.8	2.02	Watch
	1.83	2.1
	1.77	2.05	Watch
	1.81	2.06	Watch
	1.82	2.1	Watch
	1.82	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.61)	2.05 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
53.3%

Francis Tiafoe
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Learner Tien's form might have worsened.

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francis Tiafoe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 12. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 23.

Tien is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tiafoe's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tien won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.93%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 41.07%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Learner Tien - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
12.08.26	Learner Tien - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
11.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Learner Tien - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Learner Tien - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
06.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Arthur Rinderknech	Tiafoe F. Retired ✺
04.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Terence Atmane	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 W?WLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
20.02.26	Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP US Open
28.08.23	Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe	0:3

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