Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villena, hard - Final

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Hugo Grenier

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
			Watch
	1.42	3.03
	1.37	3.04	Watch
			Watch
	1.41	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.54)	2.97 ↑ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
68.1%

Hugo Grenier
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pablo Carreno-Busta's performance.

Hugo Grenier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hugo Grenier might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Grenier than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Hugo Grenier Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Grenier will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123. Grenier is ranked ATP: 195.

Now, both players are in good form.

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carreno Busta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Petr Brunclik - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Landaluce	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Eliakim Coulibaly	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dali Blanch	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Vit Kopriva	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL
- Hugo Grenier
ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Hugo Grenier - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Moez Echargui - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Hynek Barton - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Lukas Klein - Hugo Grenier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWL

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