Match Info

Liiga

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: LähiTapiola Areena (Jyväskylä)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	JYP		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.5	3.4
	1.9	4.14	3.52	Watch
	1.88	3.69	3.47
	1.9	3.9	3.55	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.25
	1.88	4.25	3.38	Watch
	1.9	3.85	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.9)	4.03 ↑ (3.89)	3.44 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JYP
49.8%

Draw
23.1%

TPS
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

24%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.2%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JYP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JYP than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

The ML Model estimate for TPS aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

JYP - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. JYP will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. JYP (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Salminen O. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
44. Vatanen S. (A)	38. Landen A.
31. Peltola E.	61. Binner A.
24. Huttu E.	49. Wernblom L.
7. True A.	86. Sevanen R.
14. Perttu M.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 2
63. Bourque T.	6. Rafkin R.
29. Winberg T.	40. Lehtonen S.
39. Ojantakanen V.	87. Saarela A.
28. Lassila J. (C)	21. Maatta J. (A)
40. Torgersson D.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 3
18. Jokinen R.	2. Tuhkala A.
4. Liikonen V.	66. Reunanen T. (C)
25. Jormakka P.	84. Pikkarainen K.
17. Makinen O.	20. Myllymaa K.
71. Puustinen J. (A)	9. Koivu A.
Line 4
2. Pulli J.	7. Lauridsen O. (A)
91. Nieminen V.	10. Ylitalo N.
89. Tyrvainen A.	57. Munkki V.
92. Vidgren A.	67. Ruokonen M.
Substitutes
34. Setanen O. (G)	1. Niittymaki A. (G)
Coaches
. Matikainen P.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
07:14, Rafkin R. (2 min),
17:41, Wernblom L. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
05:46, Winberg T. (2 min),
08:23, Pakkila E. (2 min),
10:55, 0 - 1, Wernblom L. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Binner A. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
04:25, Pikkarainen K. (2 min),
13:02, 1 - 1, Jormakka P. (G), Puustinen J. (A), Winberg T. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
03:44, 2 - 1, True A. (G), Torgersson D. (A), Peltola E. (A2)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JYP won 3.

JYP is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

TPS's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

JYP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

JYP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that JYP will win today's game, with odds of 1.87.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JYP won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 48:63. (average 2.4:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, JYP won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:33. (average 2.8:3.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	JYP	10	7	0	0	3	30:25	21
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 26.78%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JYP Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	JYP - Lukko	4:3 ✺
24.01.26	KalPa - JYP	1:0 penalties ✺
21.01.26	SaiPa - JYP	2:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	JYP - Vaasan Sport	3:1 ✺
14.01.26	Ilves - JYP	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLWWW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
24.01.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 ✺
23.01.26	TPS - Pelicans	3:4 OT ✺
17.01.26	TPS - Tappara	4:2 ✺
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
09.12.25	TPS - JYP	1:2 penalties
11.10.25	JYP - TPS	5:4
19.02.25	TPS - JYP	6:3
03.01.25	JYP - TPS	6:3
18.12.24	TPS - JYP	3:2 OT
23.11.24	JYP - TPS	0:3
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
02.08.24	JYP - TPS	1:3

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