Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2


	SaiPa		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.75	3.8
	1.84	4.29	3.62
	1.84	4.23	3.52	Watch
	1.75	3.9	3.3
	1.85	4.25	3.48	Watch
	1.86	3.85	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 (1.81)	4.21 ↓ (4.34)	3.58 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SaiPa
51.7%

Draw
22.2%

TPS
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

21.8%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

21.9%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

SaiPa - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: SaiPa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): SaiPa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Karhunen T. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
50. Salminen S. (A)	2. Tuhkala A.
26. Kivihalme T.	7. Lauridsen O. (A)
51. Kalapudas A.	49. Wernblom L.
57. Hokkanen O.	86. Yliniemi S.
25. Kuusla E.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 2
14. Kramer B.	38. Landen A.
55. Trejbal O.	66. Reunanen T. (C)
41. Fortier M.	87. Saarela A.
82. Nikkanen H.	21. Maatta J. (A)
10. Kivenmaki O.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 3
22. Aho K.	6. Rafkin R.
7. Niinisaari S. (C)	40. Lehtonen S.
75. Siikanen P.	88. Elo S.
12. Bau S.	57. Munkki V.
70. Naukkarinen J.	22. Soderlund T.
Line 4
81. Klintrup E.	61. Binner A.
21. Appelgren N. (A)	10. Ylitalo N.
18. Heikkila J.	24. Virtanen J.
	67. Ruokonen M.
Substitutes
31. Grigals G. (G)	1. Niittymaki A. (G)
Coaches
. Helminen R.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:21, Salminen S. (2 min),
01:22, 0 - 1, Savinainen V. (G), Binner A. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
15:42, 1 - 1, Nikkanen H. (G), Kivenmaki O. (A), Trejbal O. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
10:18, Soderlund T. (2 min),
14:43, Hokkanen O. (2 min),
17:09, Airola S. (2 min),
17:14, 1 - 2, Saarela A. (G), Binner A. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
18:39, (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
10:19, Landen A. (2 min),
10:27, 1 - 3, Wernblom L. (G),
17:51, 1 - 4, Saarela A. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Tuhkala A. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

TPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, SaiPa is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 53:58. (average 2.7:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:23. (average 3:2.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 4.11% TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15

Last Results with these Odds

SaiPa - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 52.2%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 26.03%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	Lukko - SaiPa	3:4 ✺
05.01.26	KooKoo - SaiPa	3:4 ✺
03.01.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	2:3 penalties ✺
27.12.25	KalPa - SaiPa	4:2 ✺
26.12.25	SaiPa - KalPa	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2 ✺
27.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	8:1 ✺
26.12.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	TPS - HIFK	4:3 ✺
19.12.25	HIFK - TPS	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
26.11.25	SaiPa - TPS	6:1
01.11.25	TPS - SaiPa	1:6
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
01.08.25	TPS - SaiPa	0:2
Finnish SM-liiga
24.03.25	SaiPa - TPS	3:2 OT
22.03.25	TPS - SaiPa	1:2
21.03.25	SaiPa - TPS	3:0
19.03.25	TPS - SaiPa	6:2

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