Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 6, SuperSport Football Plus
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 10
Germany	RTL+, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
Kenya	Gotv
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 11, M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf


	Ajax		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.75	3.1
	2.00	3.75	3.00
	2.12	3.6	2.95
	2.15	3.92	3.24
	2.13	3.88	3.13	Watch
	2.09	3.8	3.05
	2.09	3.84	3.37
	2.1	3.8	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.57)	3.79 ↑ (3.57)	3.11 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
44.9%

Draw
24.8%

Atalanta
30.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

25.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

25.6%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atalanta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Ajax - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Atalanta will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ajax is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Bissouma Y. (Off the roster) Blind D. (Back Injury) Dolberg K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Atalanta: Hien I. (Muscle Injury) Kessie F. (Calf Injury) Kolasinac S. (Thigh Injury) Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury) Pompei T. (Off the roster) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana K. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Ajax: Adingra S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Berghuis S. (Injury) Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Gaaei A. (Injury).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ajax has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3
25	Ajax	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Atalanta: 10.72% Ajax: 6.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.08%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.26	Groningen - Ajax	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Hajduk Split - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ajax - Willem II	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTTW
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
18.10.26	Milan - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Atalanta - Paphos	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.10.26	Atalanta - Venezia	3:1 ✺
20.09.26	Juventus - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Atalanta - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.12.20	Ajax - Atalanta	0:1
27.10.20	Atalanta - Ajax	2:2

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