Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 30

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Spain	GolStadium
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Heracles Almelo		Ajax

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.5	1.53	Watch
	5.4	4.45	1.55
	5.4	4.85	1.56
	5.17	4.65	1.55	Watch
	5	4.33	1.5
	5.71	4.65	1.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.32 ↓ (5.38)	4.57 ↑ (4.16)	1.54 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
17.8%

Draw
20.7%

Ajax
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

22.4%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

21.8%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	14.3%	78.6%

Heracles Almelo - Ajax Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 3. Wieckhoff J. 4. Mirani D. (C) 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 24. Mesik I. 10. Bruns T. 32. Scheperman S. 17. van Gilst T. 8. Engels M. 9. Unuvar N. 25. Zeefuik L.	26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 24. Mokio J. 10. Gloukh O. 4. Itakura K. 23. Berghuis S. (C) 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
14. Ahlstrand E. 39. Blokhuis S. 21. Borges Sanches Y. 20. Bozinovski R. 6. Cestic S. 16. Jansink T. (G) 19. Kulenovic L. 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 73. Ould Chikh W. 5. van der Kust D.	43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 17. Edvardsen O. 62. el Hani A. (G) 19. Konadu D. 52. Reverson P. (G) 48. Steur S. 32. Tomiyasu T. 53. van der Lans M. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Faber E.	Garcia O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Mokio J. (A),
17', 0 - 2, Berghuis S. ⚽, Weghorst W. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bruns T. ↓, Cestic S. ↑,
47', 0 - 3, Berghuis S. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
54', Unuvar N. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
55', van Gilst T. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
55', Wieckhoff J. ↓, van der Kust D. ↑,
65', Mesik I. ↓, Ould Chikh W. ↑,
66', Itakura K. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
74', Ould Chikh W. 🟨,
76', Van Hoorenbeeck A. 🟨,
79', Tomiyasu T. 🟥,
84', Gloukh O. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
84', Berghuis S. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
87', Godts M. ↓, Bouwman A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 0.

Heracles is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ajax's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ajax is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Heracles: Benita M. (Yellow Cards) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury) de Keijzer F. (Inactive) te Wierik M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Ajax: Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Regeer Y. (Hamstring Injury) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heracles: Hrustic A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Fitz-Jim K. (Inactive) Tomiyasu T. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:45. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
05.04.26	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
20.03.26	Heracles Almelo - Excelsior	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
06.03.26	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Heracles Almelo - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLTL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.26	Ajax - Twente	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Feyenoord - Ajax	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0 ✺
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	2:0
16.02.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:0
20.10.24	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	3:4
27.01.24	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	2:4
12.08.23	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:1
06.02.22	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	3:0
30.10.21	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:0

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