Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Uruguay	Antel TV
Usa	Fubo Latino


	Alverca		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.57	Watch
	2.37	3.5	2.7
	2.48	3.45	2.62	Watch
	2.56	3.61	2.76
	2.56	3.42	2.71	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.58	3.58	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.47)	3.48 ↑ (3.28)	2.69 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
37.9%

Draw
27.1%

Estoril Praia
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.8%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.3%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Alverca - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Mendes (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 6. Gui D. 18. Lincoln 82. Spencer D. 26. Rhaldney 20. Figueiredo 91. Sandro Lima	1. Robles J. (G) 25. Bacher F. 4. Ferro 5. Tsoungui A. 2. Sanchez R. 8. Xeka 10. Holsgrove J. 24. Amaral P. 99. Guitane R. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 14. Begraoui Y.
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 25. Diarra S. 77. Felipe Lima 15. Julian I. 35. Kassary Z. 37. Kauan 1. Mateus Oliveira (G) 17. Moreira V. 11. Nuozzi C.	44. Boma K. 22. Carvalho P. 20. Costa G. 31. Dias D. (G) 19. Lacximicant A. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi
Coaches
Custodio	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Figueiredo ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),
45+3', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
45+3', Rhaldney 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ferro ↓, Costa G. ↑,
46', Amaral P. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Lacximicant A. ⚽, Costa G. (A),
56', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
66', Spencer D. ↓, Julian I. ↑,
72', Xeka ↓, Boma K. ↑,
74', Rhaldney ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
74', Sandro Lima ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
80', Sanchez R. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
80', Guitane R. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
88', Meupiyou B. ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
88', Gui D. ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
90+4', Carvalho P. 🟨,
90+4', Naves 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 9).

In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Estoril has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Estoril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Chiquinho (Yellow Cards) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Estoril: Bimai L. (Inactive) Boma K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chissumba (Injury) Martinez J. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Alverca - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.26%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Estoril Praia - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.93%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
02.05.26	Porto - Alverca	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Alverca - Arouca	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Nacional - Alverca	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Alverca - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Rio Ave - Alverca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWW
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
03.05.26	Braga - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:3 ✺
06.04.26	Arouca - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1

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