Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Amorebieta		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	3.55	2.85	2.08
	4.35	2.94	2.08
	3.57	2.92	2.15	Watch
	3.33	3.22	2.18
	3.55	2.85	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↓ (4.49)	2.98 ↓ (3.42)	2.09 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
25.2%

Draw
30.8%

Ponferradina
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

26.4%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

25.7%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Amorebieta's performance.

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Amorebieta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Amorebieta - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marino U. (C) 2. Carbonell A. 5. Amelibia J. 22. Yuste A. 4. Kortazar M. 17. Munoz I. 16. Masllorens J. 14. Ben Hamed N. 11. Hervias P. 9. Kaxe 7. Selma D.	1. Prieto A. (G) 17. Carrique T. 2. Andujar D. 4. Sibille K. 5. Lancho J. 19. Lopez A. 24. Doue M. 16. Lozano M. 22. Esquerdo V. 10. Valle B. (C) 12. Ferrer P.
Substitutes
10. Berto 19. Bravo Fernandez M. 23. Calavera J. 3. Camacho S. 13. Campos G. (G) 20. Coto E. 18. Coulibaly A. 21. Marin A. 30. Pedrosa Moran Y. (G) 24. Perez E. 12. Sola J. 8. Vicandi A.	15. Bustos A. 9. Cabanzon Y. 21. Cortes J. 6. Fernandez B. 7. Gomez E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 11. Mula A. 3. Novoa G. 18. Ramon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Masllorens J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Doue M. ↓, Bustos A. ↑,
46', Sibille K. ↓, Cabanzon Y. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Munoz I. ⚽,
58', 3 - 0, Ben Hamed N. ⚽,
58', Lopez A. ↓, Ramon A. ↑,
58', Esquerdo V. ↓, Mula A. ↑,
61', Kaxe ↓, Vicandi A. ↑,
61', Hervias P. ↓, Camacho S. ↑,
62', 🟨,
74', Munoz I. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
76', Ferrer P. ↓, Gomez E. ↑,
81', Masllorens J. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
81', Selma D. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
82', 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 1, Andujar D. ⚽,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Amorebieta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ponferradina will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Amorebieta won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:6 (average 1.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Amorebieta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.02.25	Leonesa - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
02.02.25	Amorebieta - Arenteiro	3:0 ✺
26.01.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Amorebieta	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Amorebieta - Tarazona	2:2 ✺
12.01.25	Osasuna B - Amorebieta	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWTTL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.02.25	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Ponferradina - FC Andorra	1:0 ✺
19.01.25	Barcelona B - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
11.01.25	Ponferradina - Sestao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.11.24	Ponferradina - Amorebieta	5:2
Spanish LaLiga2
28.05.22	Amorebieta - Ponferradina	1:0
19.12.21	Ponferradina - Amorebieta	1:1

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