Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV7
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Arouca		Tondela

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.18	Watch
	3.21	3.55	2.22
	3.12	3.48	2.22	Watch
	3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.22	3.66	2.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.8)	3.49 ↓ (4.2)	2.2 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
30.2%

Draw
27%

Tondela
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

22.5%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

22.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	13.3%	46.7%

Arouca - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Tondela will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 66. Fayed O. 15. Sanchez J. 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 44. Silva J. 4. Marques C. 27. Conceicao R. 32. Rodriguez J. 97. Cicero (C) 7. Pedro Maranhao 79. Felix H. 90. Aiko M. 16. Rony Lopes
Substitutes
46. Flores M. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 89. Pedro Santos 2. Silva J. 30. Vinarcik J. (G)	5. Afonso J. 2. Bebeto 10. Hodge J. 23. Kimpioka B. 29. Siebatcheu J. 15. Sithole S. 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Fukui T. ⚽,
39', Fayed O. 🟨,
41', Cicero 🟨,
41', Kuipers B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', Fayed O. ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
61', Cicero ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
63', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
63', Djouahra N. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Rony Lopes ⚽, Aiko M. (A),
73', Aiko M. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
73', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Trezza A. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
79', Gozalbez P. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
79', Fukui T. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
81', Lee H. 🟨,
81', Conceicao R. ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
82', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Lee H. ⚽, Nandin D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.

Arouca is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tondela's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tondela will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Fontan J. (Yellow Cards) Puche (Inactive) Valido J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Tondela: Huarte X. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tondela: Vita R. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:3 ✺
02.05.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	Alverca - Arouca	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Braga - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTLWL
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Tondela - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Casa Pia - Tondela	0:1 ✺
29.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Tondela - Nacional	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Porto - Tondela	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.8 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1
19.03.22	Tondela - Arouca	2:2
29.10.21	Arouca - Tondela	2:0
13.05.17	Arouca - Tondela	1:2
08.01.17	Tondela - Arouca	1:2
Club Friendly
21.07.16	Arouca - Tondela	2:0
Liga Portugal
06.03.16	Tondela - Arouca	0:1

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