Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV


	Arouca		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.3
	2.78	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.86	3.26	2.66
	2.82	3.23	2.57	Watch
	2.75	3	2.5	Watch
	2.84	3.35	2.63	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (3.23)	3.21 ↓ (3.41)	2.54 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
33.5%

Draw
29.3%

Vitoria Guimarães
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

27.7%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	28.6%	66.7%

Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Guimarães will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Guimarães (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 25. Kuipers B. 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	27. Charles Silva (G) 66. Strata T. 3. Nobrega M. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 23. Sousa D. 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N.
Substitutes
44. Dante A. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Perez J. 1. Valido J. (G)	18. Arcanjo T. 22. Blanco F. 25. Castillo J. (G) 11. Gustavo 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 88. Nogueira M. 28. Thiago Balieiro 50. Zeega
Coaches
Seabra V.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', Samu 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Saviolo N. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Camara O. ⚽, Samu (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Trezza A. ⚽, Fontan J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Samu ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
54', Kuipers B. 🟨,
56', 2 - 2, Barbero I. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
65', Camara O. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
73', Beni 🟨,
74', 3 - 2, Lee H. ⚽,
78', Beni ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
78', Oliveira N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
78', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
83', Sousa D. 🟨,
84', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
84', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
86', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
88', Abascal R. 🟨,
89', Fukui T. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
89', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Mayulu F. (Inactive) Pedro Santos (Inactive)

There will not play in Guimarães: Maga (Yellow Cards) Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Nandin D. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
31.01.26	Rio Ave - Arouca	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLWLT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
30.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1
18.01.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	2:2
12.08.24	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
18.05.24	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
15.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	2:1
11.03.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:2
18.09.22	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2

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