The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arsenal Tula 24.9%
Draw 29.7%
Rodina Moscow 45.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.5%
27.6%
43.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.8%
27.9%
43.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
Rodina Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
Arsenal Tula - Rodina Moscow Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
42. Melikhov A. (G) 31. Bolshakov K. (C) 10. Gorbunov I. 99. Guliev A. 44. Isaenko O. 9. Maksimov M. 4. Penchikov D. 77. Plotnikov D. 5. Putsko A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 22. Tsaraev A.
13. Volkov S. (G) 17. Bakaev S. 49. Dyatlov I. 5. Egorychev A. 6. Fishchenko R. 55. Krizan M. 9. Maksimenko A. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 88. Sokol A. 99. Timoshenko I. 23. Ushatov K.
Substitutes
17. Ahlinvi M. 24. Azyavin I. 19. Bogdanets K. 45. Karmaev N. 95. Obryvkov S. 8. Popov A. 7. Reyes E. 1. Sangare D. (G) 50. Sokolov I. 18. Tsulaya M. (G)
18. Abdusalamov M. 7. Arce S. 1. Aydarov S. (G) 22. Beskibalniy A. 80. Bessmertniy S. 8. Cissoko K. 3. Goglichidze L. 77. Koryan A. 38. Musaev L. 10. Reyna Y. 71. Svinov I. (G) 21. Yudintsev G.
Coaches
Gunko D.
Diaz J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
15', 0 - 1, Timoshenko I. ⚽,
19', 0 - 2, Maksimenko A. ⚽,
40', 0 - 3, Maksimenko A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Isaenko O. ↓, Reyes E. ↑,
50', 0 - 4, Bakaev S. ⚽,
51', 1 - 4, Maksimov M. ⚽,
61', Egorychev A. ↓, Koryan A. ↑,
71', Bakaev S. ↓, Arce S. ↑,
71', Timoshenko I. ↓, Cissoko K. ↑,
71', Guliev A. ↓, Azyavin I. ↑,
77', Tsaraev A. ↓, Ahlinvi M. ↑,
78', Penchikov D. 🟨,
81', Dyatlov I. ↓, Beskibalniy A. ↑,
81', Maksimenko A. ↓, Yudintsev G. ↑,
83', Azyavin I. 🟨,
86', Sokol A. 🟨,
90', Arce S. 🟨,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).
Rodina is Qualified for Premier League
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 1.
Arsenal is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Rodina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Rodina could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).
Outrights of Russian FNL for now
Arsenal Tula: 0.78%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
12
Arsenal Tula
12
3
4
5
12:22
-10
13
Last Results with these Odds
Rodina Moscow - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.88%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.
Russia
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Melikhov A. (G) 
Krizan M. 
Ahlinvi M. 
Reyes E. 
Arce S. 
Cissoko K. 
Koryan A. 
Reyna Y. 
Diaz J. 
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