Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	SuperSport 1
Argentina	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	21:45	CBC Sport
Belgium	18:45	Play Sports 2, VOOsport World 1, VRT Canvas
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	14:45	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	13:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	01:45	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:45	Sport 2
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	18:45	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 5, New World TV
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 1
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay
India	23:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 1
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Kosovo	18:45	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	11:45	Claro Sports, ESPN
Montenegro	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Netherlands	18:45	Canal+, Sporza, Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:45	Arena Premium 3, TDM Desporto
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Premium 4
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 1
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 1
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	01:45	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:45	Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	17:45	beIN Sports MENA English 2, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	13:45	Paramount+, TUDN
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	Disney+, VIX App


	Athletic Bilbao		Roma

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4
	1.93	3.5	3.9
	1.95	3.6	4	Watch
	1.97	3.6	4.21
	1.9	3.62	4.06	Watch
	1.95	3.4	4
	2	3.6	4.22
	1.95	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.89)	3.55 ↓ (3.58)	4.05 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
49.3%

Draw
27%

Roma
23.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.5%

26.7%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

29.4%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.1%	1.9%	17%

Athletic Bilbao - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (43 of 52 users predict this - 82.69%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.41% – 92.97%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 14. Nunez U. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 23. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. 20. Gomez U. 10. Williams N. 21. Sannadi M.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. (C) 15. Hummels M. 5. Ndicka E. 2. Rensch D. 4. Cristante B. 16. Paredes L. 3. Angelino 21. Dybala P. 35. Baldanzi T. 11. Dovbyk A.
Substitutes
7. Berenguer A. 32. Boiro A. 28. Canales P. 11. Djalo A. 30. Dunabeitia A. 2. Gorosabel A. 12. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 33. Olabarrieta A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M.	12. Abdulhamid S. 66. Buba Aboubacar 70. De Marzi G. (G) 92. El Shaarawy S. 95. Gollini P. (G) 17. Kone M. 25. Nelsson V. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 61. Pisilli N. 56. Saelemaekers A. 14. Shomurodov E. 18. Soule M.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Hummels M. 🟥,
12', Svilar M. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Williams N. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gomez U. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
53', Dovbyk A. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
60', Rensch D. 🟨,
61', Dybala P. ↓, Shomurodov E. ↑,
61', Baldanzi T. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Berchiche Y. ⚽, Berenguer A. (A),
68', Paredes A. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,
71', Williams I. 🟨,
71', Paredes L. 🟨,
77', Sannadi M. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Williams N. ⚽, Berchiche Y. (A),
83', Rensch D. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
83', Cristante B. ↓, Saelemaekers A. ↑,
88', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
88', Williams I. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
90+1', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 1, Paredes L. (Pen),
90:00, Soule M. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Athletic is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Roma is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Roma have a series of home games.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Red Card) Vivian D. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Celik Z. (Thigh Injury) Gourna-Douath L. (Inactive) Marin R. (Injury) Salah-Eddine A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Djalo A. (Ankle Injury) Sancet O. (Muscle Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Athletic won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
09.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.03.25	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Athletic Bilbao - Valladolid	7:1 ✺
16.02.25	Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLWT
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
09.03.25	Empoli - Roma	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.03.25	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Roma - Como	2:1 ✺
24.02.25	Roma - Monza	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
20.02.25	Roma - Porto	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.03.25	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	2:1
26.09.24	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
Club Friendly
07.08.19	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	2:2

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