Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Motorsport
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	Athletic Bilbao		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.4
	2.2	3.5	3.1
	3.05	3.4	2.42
	2.97	3.4	2.52
	2.93	3.39	2.53	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.45
	3	3.41	2.48
	2.85	3.33	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (1.99)	3.37 ↓ (3.74)	2.55 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
33.8%

Draw
28.5%

Sporting Lisbon
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

25.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

26.3%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Lisbon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.6%	9.2%	63.2%

Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 76 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 21 - 27.6%). Sporting will win (votes: 48 - 63.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 9.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 52.4% – 74%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 10 - 34.5%). Sporting (votes: 15 - 51.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH +0.25 - Sporting (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 13 - 68.4%) .

DC - Sporting (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.25) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Sporting (1.75) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Athletic (4.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 12 - 32.4%). Sporting (votes: 21 - 56.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 10.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. (C) 19. Boiro A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 30. Rego A. 20. Gomez U. 8. Sancet O. 23. Navarro R. 11. Guruzeta G.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 10. Catamo G. 23. Braganca D. 17. Trincao 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 34. De Luis J. 40. Gift E. 31. Hierro A. 15. Lekue I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 35. Sanchez I. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.	27. Alisson Santos 58. Goncalves F. 8. Goncalves P. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 2. Matheus Reis 5. Morita H. 90. Nel R. 72. Quaresma E. 99. Silva F. (G) 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Valverde E.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Sancet O. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Diomande O. ⚽, Araujo M. (A),
26', Inacio G. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
28', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
29', Matheus Reis 🟨,
35', Gomez U. 🟨,
39', Araujo M. 🟨,
44', Guruzeta G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Simoes J. 🟨,
50', Sancet O. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
54', Braganca D. ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
54', Diomande O. ↓, Quaresma E. ↑,
54', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
55', Goncalves P. 🟨,
62', 2 - 2, Trincao ⚽,
66', Gomez U. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
75', Paredes A. 🟨,
81', Navarro R. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
81', Guruzeta G. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
82', Vesga M. 🟨,
86', Quaresma E. 🟨,
87', Trincao ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
90+4', 2 - 3, Alisson Santos ⚽,

Preview

Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sporting is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Jauregizar M. (Yellow Cards) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Blopa S. (Inactive) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Luis Guilherme (Inactive) Quaresma E. (Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sporting CP: 0.75%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao	3:4 ET ✺
Spanish Supercopa
07.01.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
24.01.26	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.24	Sporting Lisbon - Athletic Bilbao	3:0
UEFA Europa League
26.04.12	Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon	3:1

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