Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 19

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, Premiere, SporTV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Atlético Mineiro		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.6	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.60	4.10
	1.88	3.45	3.95	Watch
	1.89	3.69	4.5
	1.92	3.68	3.93	Watch
	1.87	3.6	4.3
	1.9	3.69	4.3	Watch
	1.75	3.4	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.09)	3.59 ↑ (3.4)	4.14 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
50.8%

Draw
26.3%

Bahia
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

27.8%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.7%	16.7%	6.7%

Atlético Mineiro - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Bahia (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (C) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 13. Lyanco 6. Lodi R. 25. Perez T. 8. Maycon 28. Cuello 30. Victor Hugo 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M.	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 66. Ze Guilherme 14. Erick (C) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 29. Caua 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 48. Gutte 17. Igor Gomes 36. Pascini K. 19. Reinier 14. Vitor Hugo	63. David Martins 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 17. Herrera G. (G) 25. Iago Borduchi 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 77. Ruan Pablo 23. Sanabria M.
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Ruan Tressoldi ⚽, Bernard (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ramos S. ↓, Marcos Victor ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Ademir ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
67', Victor Hugo ↓, Dudu ↑,
67', Maycon ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
73', Ademir ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
73', Willian Jose ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
77', Ze Guilherme 🟨,
80', Ze Guilherme ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
86', Bernard ↓, Reinier ↑,
87', Erick Pulga ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
87', Erick 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.

In recent matches, Bahia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético MG could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Gustavo Scarpa (Knee Injury) Maycon (Inactive) Patrick Silva (Knee Injury) Roman I. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Bahia: Leo Vieira (Injury) Luciano Juba (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Bahia: David Duarte (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Atletico-MG: 0.33% Bahia: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.28%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
31.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
17.07.26	Bahia - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Bahia - Montevideo City Torque	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
25.05.26	Coritiba - Bahia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	3:0
12.07.25	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
15.09.24	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	3:0
02.06.24	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:1
06.12.23	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	4:1
13.08.23	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:0
02.12.21	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	2:3

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