Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Mineiro		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.65
	2.92	3.05	2.48	Watch
	3.14	3.2	2.5
	3.06	3.17	2.47	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.45
	3.21	3.15	2.49	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.64)	3.11 ↑ (3.1)	2.5 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
31.7%

Draw
30.5%

Palmeiras
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

30%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

29.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	87.5%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 21. Franco A. 4. Ruan Tressoldi 6. Alonso J. 16. Lodi R. 17. Igor Gomes 8. Maycon 11. Bernard 30. Victor Hugo 92. Dudu 7. Hulk (C)	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 8. Andreas Pereira 27. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 39. Cisse M. 28. Cuello 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 10. Gustavo Scarpa 38. Indio 27. Minda A. 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 19. Reinier 40. Vitao 14. Vitor Hugo	56. Arthur Gabriel 3. Bruno Fuchs 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 48. Larson 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 23. Raphael Veiga 37. Riquelme Fillipi 9. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Sampaoli J.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
44', 1 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Lodi R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Franco A. 🟨,
61', Bernard ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
61', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Khellven (Own goal),
77', Victor Hugo ↓, Alexsander ↑,
79', Sosa R. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
81', Mauricio 🟨,
83', Allan Elias ↓, Riquelme Fillipi ↑,
84', Piquerez J. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽,
84', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
88', Mauricio ↓, Luighi ↑,
88', Igor Gomes ↓, Reinier ↑,
88', Alexsander 🟨,
88', Vitor Roque 🟨,
90+8', Lodi R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.

Atlético MG has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Junior Santos (Hip Injury) Lyanco (Achilles Tendon Injury) Preciado A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Inactive) Lucas Evangelista (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:27. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	North Esporte Clube - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Betim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTTTT
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:3
20.07.25	Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro	3:2
28.09.24	Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
17.06.24	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:4
19.10.23	Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro	0:2
Copa Libertadores
09.08.23	Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
02.08.23	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:1

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