Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: WWK Arena (Augsburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	10:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	DAZN 1
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	09:30	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	21:30	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	08:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	19:00	Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	iNews, RCTI+, Vidio
Japan	22:30	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2, Viaplay
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 3
Romania	16:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	16:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 9, SportKlub 3
Singapore	21:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South America	—	ESPN 5 South
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	16:30	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	14:30	Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	20:30	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Augsburg		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	4.2	Watch
	1.83	3.8	4
	1.85	3.75	4.35	Watch
	1.85	4.09	4.17
	1.82	3.88	4.31	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4	Watch
	1.86	4	4.38	Watch
	1.85	3.75	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.72)	3.85 ↓ (4.04)	4.22 ↓ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augsburg
52.3%

Draw
25%

Holstein Kiel
22.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.8%

23.8%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

23.1%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Augsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Augsburg - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 2 - 40%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Holstein Kiel (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Augsburg (1.46) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Augsburg (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dahmen F. (G) 5. Matsima C. 6. Gouweleeuw J. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 11. Wolf M. 19. Onyeka F. 17. Jakic K. 13. Giannoulis D. 36. Komur M. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 9. Essende S.	21. Dahne T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 23. Rosenboom L. 37. Gigovic A. 22. Remberg N. 47. Tolkin J. 7. Skrzybski S. 11. Bernhardsson A. 18. Machino S.
Substitutes
2. Gumny R. 24. Jensen F. 44. Koudossou H. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 10. Maier A. 15. Mounie S. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 31. Schlotterbeck K. 21. Tietz P.	20. Arp J.-F. 14. Geschwill M. 19. Harres P. 10. Holtby L. 33. Javorcek D. 24. Knudsen M. 8. Porath F. 15. Schulz M. 1. Weiner T. (G)
Coaches
Thorup J.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Machino S. (Pen),
39', Machino S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
40', 0 - 2, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 3, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
53', Zesiger C. ↓, Tietz P. ↑,
54', Wolf M. ↓, Koudossou H. ↑,
56', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
63', Komur M. ↓, Maier A. ↑,
63', Essende S. ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
74', Gigovic A. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
74', Skrzybski S. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
79', Onyeka F. ↓, Rexhbecaj E. ↑,
85', Arp J.-F. 🟨,
90', 1 - 3, Mounie S. ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
90+4', Remberg N. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Holstein Kiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Augsburg is the team to beat.

There will not play in Augsburg: Banks N. (Muscle Injury) Berisha M. (Injury) Kabadayi Y. (Knee Injury) Kucuksahin M. (Injury) Oxford R. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Ivezic M. (Yellow Cards) Kelati A. Y. (Thigh Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Komenda M. (Thigh Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
26.04.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Augsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Bochum - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
29.03.25	Hoffenheim - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTWLT
- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
26.04.25	Holstein Kiel - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:3 ✺
19.04.25	RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Holstein Kiel - Werder Bremen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Holstein Kiel - Augsburg	5:1
German DFB Pokal
06.02.19	Holstein Kiel - Augsburg	0:1

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