Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 30

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Brych F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.75	6.25	Watch
	1.36	5.5	7.25
	1.48	5	6	Watch
	1.47	5.2	6.08
	1.46	5.22	6.28	Watch
	1.36	5	7	Watch
	1.47	4.86	6.92	Watch
	1.48	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.34)	5.07 ↓ (5.81)	6.47 ↓ (8.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
66.3%

Draw
18.9%

Holstein Kiel
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.7%

16.6%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.3%

15.8%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RB Leipzig's form might have worsened.

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RB Leipzig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.4%	6.4%	4.3%

RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Holstein Kiel (1.83) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -2 - RB Leipzig (2.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (42 of 47 users predict this - 89.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.54% – 98.18%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 12 - 85.7%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (C) 21. Nedeljkovic K. 16. Klostermann L. 5. Bitshiabu E. 23. Lukeba C. 17. Baku R. 13. Seiwald N. 18. Vermeeren A. 14. Baumgartner C. 30. Sesko B. 11. Openda L.	21. Dahne T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 26. Zec D. 6. Ivezic M. 23. Rosenboom L. 37. Gigovic A. 22. Remberg N. 47. Tolkin J. 7. Skrzybski S. 11. Bernhardsson A. 18. Machino S.
Substitutes
47. Gebel V. 3. Geertruida L. 27. Gomis T. 8. Haidara A. 45. Norbye J. 9. Poulsen Y. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 48. Voufack L.	20. Arp J.-F. 14. Geschwill M. 19. Harres P. 5. Johansson C. 24. Knudsen M. 9. Pichler B. 8. Porath F. 15. Schulz M. 1. Weiner T. (G)
Coaches
Low Z.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Rosenboom L. 🟨,
41', Klostermann L. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Machino S. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vermeeren A. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
46', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Geertruida L. ↑,
66', Zec D. ↓, Johansson C. ↑,
66', Skrzybski S. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
67', Gulacsi P. ↓, Vandevoordt M. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Sesko B. (Pen),
79', Machino S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
79', Rosenboom L. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
87', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
90+3', Openda L. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
90+3', Baku R. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
90+8', Arp J.-F. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Recent matches RB Leipzig is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Holstein Kiel is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

RB Leipzig could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match RB Leipzig is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nusa A. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Raum D. (Muscle Injury) Schlager X. (Thigh Injury) Simons X. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Holtby L. (Muscle Injury) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches RB Leipzig won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:1 (average 2.3:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams RB Leipzig won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
11.04.25	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	2:3 ✺
05.04.25	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.04.25	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.03.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLLW
- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Holstein Kiel - Werder Bremen	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
20.03.25	Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
16.03.25	Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
07.12.24	Holstein Kiel - RB Leipzig	0:2
German 3 Bundesliga
22.02.14	Holstein Kiel - RB Leipzig	0:2
03.09.13	RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel	3:1

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