Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 2 - ROUND 37

Date: 26 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Bastia		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.87	3.1	2.45
	2.75	3.1	2.55
	2.98	3.19	2.61
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.86	3.26	2.49	Watch
	2.85	3.15	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.45)	3.13 ↑ (2.8)	2.48 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
32.7%

Draw
29.7%

Le Havre
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

34.3%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Le Havre's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Le Havre, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	30.4%	43.5%

Bastia - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Le Havre will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 30.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 23. Palun L. 6. Guidi D. 20. Kaiboue K. 22. Van Den Kerkhof K. 13. Ducrocq T. 10. Salles Lamonge S. 42. Tavares D. 39. Djoco K. 11. Magri F. 9. Santelli B.	30. Desmas A. (G) 17. El Hajjam O. 92. Youte Kinkoue E. 4. Lloris G. 27. Operi C. 18. Mbemba N. 22. Lekhal V. 5. Targhalline O. 28. Mahmoud E. 23. Casimir J. 24. Richardson A.
Substitutes
27. Alfarela M. 1. Boucher Z. (G) 17. Diongue M. 5. Drame I. 66. Janneh J. 28. Sainati J. 8. Schur K.	33. Bentoumi M. 25. Confais A. 1. Gorgelin M. (G) 29. Grandsir S. 9. Kitala Y. 15. Kongolo T. 20. Logbo A.
Coaches
Brouard R.	Elsner L.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Bastia has the most likely position - 5 (56.12%), project points - 61, currently - 59, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of promoted (2%), not chance of win league.

Le Havre has the most likely position - 1 (63.62%), project points - 74, currently - 71, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of promoted (96%), a good chance of win league (64%).

This event has quality 39, importance 50, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bastia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Bastia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
20.05.23	Pau - Bastia	2:6 ✺
13.05.23	Bastia - Niort	2:1 ✺
06.05.23	Laval - Bastia	2:1 ✺
29.04.23	Bastia - Amiens	1:1 ✺
22.04.23	Dijon - Bastia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLTT
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 2
22.05.23	Le Havre - Valenciennes	0:2 ✺
15.05.23	Annecy - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
08.05.23	Le Havre - Rodez	1:0 ✺
29.04.23	Caen - Le Havre	1:2 ✺
22.04.23	Le Havre - Quevilly	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
08.10.22	Le Havre - Bastia	3:0
14.02.22	Le Havre - Bastia	2:4
28.08.21	Bastia - Le Havre	0:0

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