Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayern Munich		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.09	11	21	Watch
	1.09	10.5	25	Watch
	1.12	11.85	18
	1.11	10.88	17.74	Watch
	1.11	9.5	17	Watch
	1.15	10.4	21	Watch
	1.1	11	20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.12)	10.73 ↑ (9.82)	19.96 ↑ (16.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
86.3%

Draw
8.9%

Mainz
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84.6%

9.6%

5.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	8.9%	6.7%

Bayern Munich - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 38 - 84.4%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 73.8% – 95%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.75 - Mainz (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 - Bayern (6.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Bayern (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 16 - 88.9%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.	33. Batz D. (G) 24. Kawasaki S. 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. (C) 48. Potulski K. 22. Veratschnig N. 14. Boving W. 15. Maloney L. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
19. Davies A. 22. Guerreiro R. 11. Jackson N. 30. Kiala C. 27. Laimer K. 45. Pavlovic A. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)	37. Bobzien B. 42. Gleiber D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 23. Schopp K. 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Kompany V.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Karl L. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Potulski K. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', da Costa D. 🟨,
61', Ito H. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
61', Bischof T. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
61', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
62', Kawasaki S. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Bell S. (A),
73', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
77', Laimer K. 🟨,
78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
83', Davies A. 🟨,
85', Potulski K. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 4.

Bayern is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mainz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bayern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Diaz L. (Yellow Cards) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Inactive) Nebel P. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Inactive) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 66:23. (average 3.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:10. (average 4.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Stuttgart - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWL
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Lech Poznań - Mainz	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.04.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	3:0
14.12.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	2:1
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4
German Bundesliga
09.03.24	Bayern Munich - Mainz	8:1
21.10.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	1:3
22.04.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:1
German DFB Pokal
01.02.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4

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