Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	6.5	Watch
	1.39	4.7	8.3
	1.45	5.1	7.2
	1.44	5.12	7.01	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7
	1.41	5.33	8.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.49)	5.01 ↑ (4.67)	7.39 ↑ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
68.2%

Draw
19%

Freiburg
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

20.3%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

19.5%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 35 - 74.5%). Freiburg will win (votes: 4 - 8.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 17%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 62% – 87%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 7. Bellingham J. 14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 40. Inacio S. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 43. Ogbus B. 3. Lienhart P. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 27. Hofler N. 7. Scherhant D. 9. Holer L. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
41. Albert M. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 49. Reggiani L. 21. Silva F. 24. Svensson D.	19. Beste J. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 21. Muller F. (G) 26. Philipp M. 65. Steinmann K. 69. Tarnutzer R. 29. Treu P.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Beier M. ⚽, Bensebaini R. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
31', 3 - 0, Bensebaini R. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Bellingham J. 🟨,
67', Grifo V. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
67', Matanovic I. ↓, Philipp M. ↑,
74', Inacio S. ↓, Svensson D. ↑,
75', Scherhant D. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
75', Lienhart P. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
84', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
84', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
84', Hofler N. ↓, Tarnutzer R. ↑,
87', 4 - 0, Silva F. ⚽,
88', Bellingham J. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
89', Beier M. ↓, Albert M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 4.

In recent matches, Borussia D has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Freiburg is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Borussia D is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Adeyemi K. (Muscle Injury) Can E. (Knee Injury) Nmecha F. (Knee Injury) Sule N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Makengo J. (Muscle Injury) Osterhage P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 55:16. (average 2.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:5. (average 3.2:0.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23% Freiburg: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW
- SC Freiburg
German DFB Pokal
23.04.26	Stuttgart - Freiburg	2:1 ET ✺
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Freiburg - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Celta de Vigo - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
05.04.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:4
23.11.24	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	4:0
09.02.24	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	3:0
16.09.23	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:4
04.02.23	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	5:1
12.08.22	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3

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