Match Info

Carioca - Taca Rio - Final

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere


	Botafogo RJ		Bangu

	1	X	2
	1.47	3.9	6.9
	1.53	3.65	7.29
	1.48	3.81	7.49	Watch
	1.44	3.3	7
	1.44	3.56	8.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.42)	3.64 ↓ (4.28)	7.35 ↑ (7.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
62.3%

Draw
25.2%

Bangu
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

21.7%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

21.3%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Bangu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bangu than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Botafogo RJ - Bangu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raul Steffens (G) 3. Ythallo 34. Justino G. (C) 42. Kadu Santos 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 88. Edenilson 48. Arthur Novaes 16. Nathan Fernandes 45. Caio Valle 19. Arthur Cabral 30. Correa J.	31. Bruno (G) 2. Dudu 3. Gilberto 4. Kadu 16. Ricardo Sena 15. Pedro China 5. Dioguinho 21. Douglas Lima 10. Walber (C) 17. Luizinho 11. Lucas Sibito
Substitutes
13. Alex Telles 39. Arthur Izaque 20. Barboza A. 8. Danilo 67. Hernandez J. 24. Leo Linck (G) 64. Marquinhos 11. Matheus Martins 10. Montoro A. 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 2. Vitinho	6. Bruno Boca 14. Caio Felipe 1. Diego (G) 7. Garrinsha 19. Italo 25. Kauan Guilherme 20. Marcelinho 8. Mauro 13. Patrick 9. Patryck 23. Paulo Vitor 18. Welington Zaru
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Tinoco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Kadu 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Edenilson ⚽, Arthur Cabral (A),
34', Dioguinho ↓, Kauan Guilherme ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Douglas Lima ↓, Patryck ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Caio Valle ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
58', 3 - 0, Correa J. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Walber ↓, Garrinsha ↑,
67', Kadu ↓, Welington Zaru ↑,
68', Edenilson ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Luizinho ⚽, Welington Zaru (A),
76', Caio Valle ↓, Arthur Izaque ↑,
76', Nathan Fernandes ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
85', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
85', Arthur Cabral ↓, Newton ↑,
89', Pedro China ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
90+3', Welington Zaru 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 5.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bangu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Botafogo is the obvious favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:1. (average 1.4:0.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:1. (average 1.3:0.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Copa Libertadores
03.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
28.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	Nacional Potosí - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWWL
- Bangu AC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
27.02.26	Volta Redonda - Bangu	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Bangu - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
16.02.26	Fluminense - Bangu	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bangu - Boavista	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Bangu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0
26.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0
20.01.24	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0
11.02.23	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0
30.01.22	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0
13.03.21	Bangu - Botafogo RJ	0:0
15.03.20	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	1:1

Upcoming Matches