Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bournemouth		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	5.75
	1.58	4.4	5.7
	1.53	4.7	6.38
	1.54	4.39	5.92	Watch
	1.5	4.2	6
	1.59	4.53	6.1	Watch
	1.54	4.25	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.5)	4.4 ↓ (4.53)	5.98 ↓ (6.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
62.1%

Draw
21.8%

Burnley
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

21%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

17.6%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bournemouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	8.3%	20.8%

Bournemouth - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Burnley will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Burnley (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Burnley (1.76) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.75 - Bournemouth (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Burnley (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 18. Diakite B. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 16. Tavernier M. 4. Cook L. (C) 7. Brooks D. 19. Kluivert J. 24. Semenyo A. 9. Evanilson	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 18. Ekdal H. 4. Worrall J. 23. Lucas Pires 8. Ugochukwu L. 24. Cullen J. (C) 29. Laurent J. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 19. Flemming Z. 11. Anthony J.
Substitutes
21. Adli A. 10. Christie R. 40. Dennis W. (G) 23. Hill J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 8. Scott A. 15. Smith A. 6. Soler J. 26. Unal E.	35. Barnes A. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 16. Florentino 12. Humphreys B. 22. Sonne O. 17. Tchaouna L. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M. 13. Weiss M. (G)
Coaches
Iraola A.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Flemming Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Evanilson ↓, Unal E. ↑,
64', Kluivert J. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
65', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
66', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Semenyo A. ⚽,
74', Brooks D. 🟨,
74', Brooks D. ↓, Christie R. ↑,
77', Walker K. ↓, Sonne O. ↑,
77', Anthony J. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
82', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Broja A. ⚽, Edwards M. (A),
90+2', Tavernier M. ↓, Scott A. ↑,
90+3', Jimenez A. ↓, Adli A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 3.

Bournemouth has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Burnley has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Bournemouth is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Bournemouth: Adams T. (Knee Injury) Akinmboni M. (Muscle Injury) Christie R. (Knee Injury) Doak B. (Hamstring Injury) Milosavljevic V. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Foster L. (International duty) Humphreys B. (Lacking Match Fitness) Mejbri H. (Suspended) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Tuanzebe A. (International duty)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:25. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bournemouth won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.3:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
15.12.25	Manchester United - Bournemouth	4:4 ✺
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
02.12.25	Bournemouth - Everton	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Sunderland - Bournemouth	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Bournemouth - West Ham United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTLLT
- Burnley FC
English Premier League
13.12.25	Burnley - Fulham	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Burnley - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Brentford - Burnley	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Burnley - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
03.03.24	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:2
28.10.23	Bournemouth - Burnley	2:1
English FA Cup
07.01.23	Bournemouth - Burnley	2:4
09.02.21	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:2
English Premier League
22.02.20	Burnley - Bournemouth	3:0
21.12.19	Bournemouth - Burnley	0:1
06.04.19	Bournemouth - Burnley	1:3

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